Monday, January 29, 2007

Groundhog Day? Same old,same old:

Despite a Volatility hiccup last week (largest up and down days of this young year) most of the Sentiment Indicators remain in a zone.
The global liquidity struggle is between lessening inflows from our mid-East and other Oil suppliers earning 33% less on their product (poor chaps), and Asia's wait and see attitude on our bonds/rates; the positive side is our seasonal inflows from bonuses, retirement contributions and tax returns, which, in most mutual funds, are mandated to be put to use - managers don't get paid to watch Money Market Funds.
In a very interesting Schwab Internet call last week, among other things, they reported that we now have the lowest Supply of stocks since 1988, mainly due to Private Equity takeovers and minimal IPOs last year.
For the week, standouts include the UBS Confidence survey, which breached the 100 mark for the first time in months ( it was in the 50s when the long rally started in June-Sept.).
On the Bull side, CBOE's put/call ratio jumped to a recent high of 64, the AAII Bears jumped 6 points to 33.3%, and Public to NYSE Specialist shorting nearly reached to old high of 7.84 with its 7.53 reading.
Below is the weekly summary:

Mktsentiment. 1/19/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 12487...........12556...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2435............2502............1114
S&P500…….. 1422............1430............776
CBOE Equity put/call . 64.............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 11.1.........44 9/02........10.0-11/06

ISEE-call/put ……. 147...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100)……-9...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1153nh) 676...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..52.7...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 20.9 .........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……. 39.5/33.3.....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 70......... 73..............24

Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …………21.6/45.9

Bullish%- ………74...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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