Monday, October 29, 2007

"WITCH" WAY WEDNESDAY?:

This Wednesday, Hallowe'en, the Fed will announce its rate cut - not at the usual Tuesday 11:15 PST time. Some feel much of the reaction has already occurred, and the Indicators are just as ambivalent.
Although the CBOE put/call ratio is still somewhat high (Bullish), the ISEE - still in a newly revised range - is off the charts at 246 calls to puts! And the AAII Bears are far from hibernation as they invert the ratio 48 to 31 Bulls.
Corporate insider selling is way down from 43 to 13 to 1 over buyers (they are still buying their own Financial stocks but also selling them, along with Tech stocks).
Money Market inflows are still setting new record highs, at $35B last week. Market breadth, especially in the OTC area, is suspect considering the recent rally - new lows outpaced new highs, the Bullish Per Cent is still falling on a Sell signal given in Oct., and the Nasdaq to NYSE Volume (speculative warning) is at a 5-year high at 183.
Here are the weekly numbers:

Mktsentiment. 10/26 /2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13806………..13522…………14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2504…………2725……….. 2805.............1114
S&P500…….. 1535…………1500…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …66……………65……………91…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 19.6…………..22.9…………….44.. 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 246?................122……………246………..118
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………-2…………….-56………91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum………280……………..440…………..1568-6/03.......(917)

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..….56.5………… 62………..62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 22.9………….19.6………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……31.3/48.2….42.0/35.7……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls….63……………65…………. 74..............24
UBS investor confidence..70………68………178……………53
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.56………8.76….……8.95………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-….6.96……….7.88…..……18.25……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………44.24………..50./33.3
Bullish%- 59……….....62…………88 -2/04......46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers..13:1……43:1…
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Tech, Finance

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