Monday, July 9, 2007

VIX OPTIONS:

The VIX Index, begun in 1993 with S&P 100 near options (now changed to S&P 500), is hardly a Leading sentiment indicator, but now that there are "finally" options on it, might be worth considering for insurance purposes. Although there will always be time decay, the fact that its price is stable unless provoked by a sudden downmove in the market, the options won't get the large decay of the underlying stock, index, ETF if these move against you.
Last week's sentiment indicators were about as exciting as the market Volume, with most regressing to the middle. Notable exceptions were the record (again) low level of Bears in the I.I. survey at 18.0, and the paucity of Insider Sellers at 9:1 - it was 61:1 sellers to buyers 2 weeks ago and 97:1 a month ago!
Here are the numbers:

Mktsentiment. 7/6/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 13611...........13668...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2666............2627.............1114
S&P500…….. 1530............1536............776
CBOE Eq. put/call ….54............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 14.7..........44 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. n/a...........299-12/04.......58 - 3/9/07
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc……………27...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum…………… 186..........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..49.4...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 18.0 .........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ………43.8/32.9....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 67......... 74..............24
IBD: Short Interest- ….7.66……7.82………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…..7.17………13.15……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …………36.0/32.0
Bullish%- ……….…73...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers..9:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Basic Mat'ls
Most Sellers: Technology

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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