Monday, June 4, 2007

DON'T "FOLLOW" THE MARKET - LEAD IT!:

Especially at critical turning points Sentiment can help a trader define the risk in a market. Unfortunately, this doesn't seem to be one of those times. Most indicators appear to be boringly just as they were last week, in fact, even coming off those levels- with a couple exceptions: short interest, for whatever reasons - fear, hedging, speculating - is at record numbers with the IBD at 7.66; key corporate insider selling is high again at 43 to 1, with technology leading the pack by far (buyers' leader is the Finance group).
Despite the Asian selloff over the weekend, Birinyi's blogger Bulls reverted to bullish stance at 34:27 over Bears, although the AAII reversed this number to 33 Bulls vs. 45 Bears, which should be good for the market.
Breadth number appear strong, although nearly 50% of NYSE stocks are the un-common kind - preferred, ETFs, CEFunds, etc. A study of optionable stocks would be more accurate.
Finally, UBS Index of Investor Optimism jumped from 74 to 95 recently.
Here are the data:
Mktsentiment. 6/01/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 13668...........13668...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2613............2613.............1114
S&P500…….. 1536............1536............776
CBOE Equity put/call 61............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 12.8..........44 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 119...........299-12/04.......58 - 3/9/07
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc……………23...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum…………… 593..........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..53.9...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 21.5 .........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ………33.3/44.8....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 72......... 74..............24
IBD: Short Interest- ….7.66nh……7.66………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…. 6.7………13.15……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …………34.5/27.6
Bullish%- ……….…78...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
SentimentTrader
Short/longtermBULL/BEAR. N(neutral)/N

*Insider corporate sellers 43:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Tech

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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