Monday, March 5, 2007

THE LION ATE THE LAMB:

We didn't have to wait long to see March revealed. With many indexes and sentiment indicators at or near new highs, the rug got pulled out by - a)China, b)Alan G c) hedge funds.
This week starts with some stellar reversals - the CBOE put/call at a huge 79% puts and the McClellan at an oversold level below 50 at -68. Although the inv.Intell surveys barely budged, the kneejerk AAII actually inverted to a 36 Bull/39 Bear Buy signal, at least short term. Also notable is the record high Public to NY Specialist shorting, now indicating the guys closest to the action aren't too worried.
Still negative for the intermediate term - Bullish per cent at 73, as 3-box pt.& fig. sell sign, and the McClellan Summation high at +690.
Here are the recent numbers:

Mktsentiment. 3/2/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 12114...........12767...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2368............2515............1114
S&P500…….. 1387............1455............776
CBOE Equity put/call .79............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 18.6.........44 9/02........10.0-11/06

ISEE-call/put ……. 91...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100)……-68...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1153nh) 690...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..50.5...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 24.2 .........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……….36.6/39.6....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 65......... 73..............24

Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …………32.4/29.7
Bullish%- ………73...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04

*Insider corporate sellers 35:1, up from 20:1 in Nov.

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