Monday, May 15, 2006


So what are the Sentiment Indicators telling us about what happened last week? In a word - mixed, or rather not definitive as to whether there is more downside to go - which we certainly are overdue for- or whether the liquidity will keep driving the markets to new highs.
Both the "Sell in May and go away" and the Kinchen 4-year cycle argue for a sizable correction sometime in the next few weeks; despite the multi-month Bull runup, both NYSE and Naz new highs ran 2:1 last week, even with the selloff before the weekend.
And mutual fund inflows were still strong, per AMG data.
As for the indicators, the Panic/Euphoria has immersed back down under water to a neutral -.41 (out of the complacency area); the CBOE put/call ratio rose 10 points to 65 signalling worry about the near term. The McClellan Oscillator is giving an actual BUY signal by being right at the -50 level, and the Rydex Nova to Ursa ratio slipped another point to 14.
Survey newsletters remained mildly Bullish, although the Market Vane Bulls are at a high of 71. The other important sign that we could still have farther down to go is the Bullish Per Cent, which broke its 6% (or 3-boxes of 2-pt. boxes) descent stop of stocks on Buy signals.
Other technical warnings are most indices breaking the 50-day MA, and 5-year highs on margin debt (remember 2001?).

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