Tuesday, December 6, 2005


in the stock market, according to Tom McClellan - and he was right. He called the Nov. 28 top of the recent rally in his newsletter , and although he said the cyclical bottom would occur Dec. 5, today's rally doesn't convince me until a preponderance of Sentiment Indicators turn more negative.
Although NYSE Short Interest is double that of a year ago, complacency still runs rampant especially in the Bullish Per Cent Pt. & Figure chart at 68, nearing a topping zone; I.I., or Investor's Intelligence, measure a 55.8% Bullish to 21.1% Bear ratio (as does the AAII survey), a large spread. The Rydex Nova/Ursa climbs higher, to 23, still in a medium range boding well for longer term. Worst of all is the McClellan ratio-adjusted Oscillator coming off its toppy 51 last week to only +27 Friday - hardly a bottom.
Holding fast are the IBD short interest ratio and Public/Specialist at nicely high levels, and Mutual Fund Cash took an upturn at 4.6%.
Hopefully, once this Institutional year-end Selling is over, the rally will resume, culminating in a Santa Claus rally between Christmas and New Year's, as it has for 8 of the last 8 years. What should really clear things up in the financial markets is the fact that the number of Economists has increased 30% to 30,000 in the U.S. Former Pacific Coast Exchange Lee Korins once described an Economist as one who was good with numbers but didn't have the charm or charisma to become an accountant!

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