Monday, August 22, 2005


Wachovia analysts report that the Bullishness on Oil prices is now a recent record high of 81.5%, a big number in any survey. Although a correction is due, it's probably not the end of the secular move, considering all the Supply and Demand factors. With the housing/homebuilders group also topping out, leadership in the total market is suspect, although a couple Indicators are still showing a Bullish rally might ensue following this August correction we've just experienced:
Although the benchmark Investor's Intelligence Bull/Bear survey is still complacent at 57%, the AAII (Individual Investors) has slipped 10 points to 29.3 with 40% Bears crossing up through, a rarity. And IBD's Public/Specialist shorting just broke through the 3 level at 3.06 exhibiting the caution necessary for at least short rallies. The McClellan Oscillator posted a -40 reading, near the bottom of a "normal" correction range. Finally, the Nova/Ursa ratio slipped under 20 to 19, last seen in April's rally beginning, and before that - October.

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