Monday, May 23, 2005


In 14 out of 18 post-election years (as is this one), from 1913 to the last Bull market start in 1982, there was a Bear market - thereafter for the next 4 (1985 on) we had up markets which came home to roost in 2001. Since we are currently just negative on the year, will we get back to the majority opinion, or will the record of "never down in the 5th year of a decade" become 12 of 12? This week's extremes include: the UBS Investor Confidence Index is at a 2-year low of 50, mostly due to high oil prices; and although the Nasdaq was up 5 days last week, the New Hi to New Lo ratio was negative, indicating a bifurcation somewhere. The McClellan (ratio-adjusted) Oscillator, which usually tops out at +75, has done so lately @50 - this week it ended down to +41, portending ST caution, although the longer term Summation just broke positive, to +39. And the Bullish Percent on the SPX has bottomed out at 50, but is not up 6% (3 boxes on Pt.& Fig.) to warrant a Buy signal.

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