Monday, January 10, 2005

THE JANUARY EFFECT:

Although many Sentiment Indicators are still near their complacency highs, many have retreated lower, such as the ISEE call/put ratio (160 down from a negative 213), the NAZ Volume vs. the NYSE (149 vs. 169), and the delayed Public/Specialist short ratio (1.59 down from 1.91). As today's market rallies we see hopeful signs in a low McClellan Oscillator of -57, in a bottoming range; and as Michael Santoli reports, and all-time high in the old Odd Lot shorting number, a dinosaur from the past which was superceded by options.
Hopefully this is a retest back down to the top the Trading Range, although the Volume does not confirm this yet. Also provoking caution is the Investors' Intelligence survey of 62.9 Bulls, 20.6 Bears.
Finally, looking back at the Dec.21 column mention of CEFs selling year-end to rise again in January, many are doing nicely and should continue on up - NVX, VCV, NCP, etc.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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