Monday, December 6, 2004


The media has done a great job of selling the public on a smooth and provident Election, plenty of cash in corporate coffers, Holiday and calendar seasonality, etc. -so much that we are approaching a Perfect Storm of a short term Overbought market. What a coincidence that it noticed a newly found Oil supply the same day that the Wall Street institutions (hedgers and futures traders) closed out their books for the year - causing another market booster: a $14 drop in oil price.
That said, 12 of my 15 Sentiment Indicators are at relatively extreme levels, a unanimity seldom reached - and although December is starting out a little toppy, it would be prudent to wait until a decisive Trend is in place before acting. Some of the above extremes are: the ISE sentiment ratio is at a record 299 today, just under the record 304 in January '04 shortly before the secular downtrend; the powerful but unsustainable new high list on the NYSE was 828 to 29 last week; market surveys are at high levels as is the Nova/Ursa ratio of Rydex's Bull and Bear funds. Nasdaq Volume reached 155% of NYSE, also a peak. Insider selling reached a 4-year high, although Specialists' haven't been noticably active yet ( a delayed statistic). It's probably just a Complacency Correction (with corporate and mutual fund cash high) , but - Be careful out there!

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