Tuesday, November 16, 2004


The oversold/Bush rally was to be expected -maybe not as strong as it was. The Dow Industrials went from the throwunder bottom of both the multimonth Trading Range of 9,800-10,400 but also to the top (throwover) of the Bollinger Bands as well. The current retest back into that TR is also indicated by some high levels in Sentiment:The CBOE Equity put/call ratio went from a bullish 79 on Oct.15 to 50 on Nov.5; the ISE p/c also changed from 203 to 129. My cumulative A/D numbers are at record highs, mirroring the high levels of the McClellan Oscillator (51) and Summation (995), ratio-adjusted. 75 and 1,000 seem to be the high limits, respectively. The AAII surveys made a quick trip from 42% Bulls/ 31% bears to 62% Bulls/21% Bears indicating the current retracement. Specialist shorting (always a belated statistic) dropped from 2.34 to 1.77 preceding the rally and speculative Volume (132 NAZ to 100 NYSE), and on the OTCBB, is contrarily high.Only the fullness of time will display whether we can continue upwards in these next 2 provident months and a "5"-year, with a weaker economy and a lame duck President with ugly things to accomplish. Welles Wilder's "amazing" Delta Phenomenon cycle calls for a 12/15/04 bottom running up to a April 15, 2005 peak.

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