Wednesday, October 13, 2004


Looking at the 2004 Downtrend Channels in the DJIA, NASDAQ, and SPX one has to assume we are at best in a shortterm correction. How then to explain both Dow Utils and Trans are at New Highs, as are Cyclicals. CRB is at a 23-year high, Retail is 2% under a new high; Small Caps -S&P 600- is at a 10-year high - up 11% this year. Utils are up 81% since the Oct.'02 bottom, Techs up 75%, The DJIA, after rallying 78% from '02, is now up .618% of the downmove at today's 10,060.On the day before Labor Day the Dow Industrials were at 10,260 - if it is above that on Election Day, history says Bush has a 94% chance of winning the vote; 90% for Kerry if below. So quotes Barron's.As for Sentiment Indicators, my Cumulative A/D is at record highs and New Highs last week were also high at 609. The ratio-adjusted McClellan Summation is overbought at 928, and the Bullish near crossover 2 weeks ago in the Market Vane survey - 41% Bulls to 39% Bears proved to be a glitch, as we are back to 57/19. One of the most accurate Indicators - the Rydex Nova/Ursa funds ratio - is still at a Bullish 19, having called the recent July 1 top at 40, and the previous bottoms on May 20 and Aug.12 near 17 (we are still at 19 after several weeks).

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