Monday, September 27, 2004


W.D.Gann was right about the Sept.22 date/ Autumn Equinox forecasting a major decline in the DJIA - down 135 on that day- and still falling. As of today, it is trying to hold at the multi-zero level of 10,000, but the trend is definitely down, as we are below both the 200- and 50- day Moving Averages in the worst month of the year.
A revisit of Jake Bernstein's 1991 classic - "Cycles of Profit" - has charts of U.S. stocks back to the French Revolution - 1790 - showing major Bear markets which always retest the ultimate lows (some higher, some lower), with the 1841 low retested some 16 years later. More recent lows (1990, 1974) took about 4 years. Since we have moved up 11,000 points since 1982 and 8000 since 1994, Fibonacci retracements of .382 and .500, respectively, would land us in the mid-7000 area. Although we have never had a down 5th year in 11 decennial cycles, the months before and after could be rough.
This week's exceptional Sentiment numbers are few, with a new high in the DJIA Dividend Yield of 3.46% boding well longer term; another recent high is the IBD short interest percent, at 6.39, almost to a 5 year high of 6.78, and above January's market top of 6.1. Bearish numbers include the VIX at 14.3, cumulative A/D, reflected also in the toppy McClellan Summation, although the Oscillator just slipped into negative territory at -13. And the Nova/Ursa Index, at 17, remains very Bearish as investors put their money where ther mouth is.

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