Monday, August 23, 2004


SENTIMENTAL JOURNEY: Ned Davis Research points out that since 1900 the second half of Election years are up double digits 81% of the time, with July/August being a good period for the market. Moving out, if Kerry looks strong, Sept./Oct. will be weak; if Bush is the favorite, Oct./Nov. will be positive for stocks.
This week's Sentiment standouts are the AAII survey with a tie at 34.9 for both Bulls and Bears after having crossed in previous weeks; the Public/Specialist shorting ratio hit a 5-year high of 2.57 and the Rydex Nova/Ursa low ratio of .16 are all Bullish for stocks. Near perfect over the past 3 years, highs of 50 to 70 have led to Tops; lows in the teens preceded Bottoms. With corporations, mutual funds and investors sitting on Cash, a strong rally could surprise many hedgers shorting ETFs bigtime (especially the SPY and XLF - finance Spider).

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

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