Monday, July 12, 2004

Critical Market Juncture

With 80% of past Election Year second half's showing up markets, this one is starting quite ugly; even Friday's up day was on very weak Volume at 1.1B shares NYSE. However, with both the DJIA and SPX right on the 200-day MA, a bounce could be expected very soon, just as the ratio-adjusted McClellan Oscillator bounced up off the zero line this past week - which has recently shown rallies when not following through to the downside. Concomitantly, the CBOE Equity put/call ratio spiked up to a Bullish 85 where for 8 of the last 8 topping spikes have provoked rallies. The ISEE put/call is also high at 202 - that is the 4-year-old International Securities Electronic Exchange, the first option exchange to announce going public this week. Also, for what it's worth, the DJIA dividend ratio, at 2.89, is near its 5-year high; and Public/Specialist shorting crossed up over the 2 mark, as survey Bears remain in the teens, both contrarian Bullish signals. Next support levels, should this "lite" support area break down, would probably be 1075-SPX; 9900 DJIA.

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