Monday, July 6, 2009

FOLLOW THE LEADER:

Looking back over this year, according to AMG Research, Mutual Fund outflows of $20B, which peaked the last week of February through the second week of March (remember that week?), did not reverse until - you guessed it- the exact top of the market on June 11 with $14B Inflows! Although slightly negative this week, they are back to their +/- $1B range.
Last week my decade-long stalwarts (e-mail me for the complete Indicator matrix) that performed the best were: CBOE put/call ratio (the best at calling market bottoms) which climbed still higher to 75; McClellan at a -19 (still a ways from the -50 or so needed); but the Bullish % -stocks on a BUY signal is itself on a SELL signal of 57 (funnily unchanged from the week before, as was the McClellan Summation Index). Did they take the Holiday week off?
Here are the complete numbers:

MktSentiment. 7/3/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8280………8438.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1796………1838…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 896…………918………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq.

put/call ..........…75…………..73……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 27.9………25.9…….......79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc…-19…….-2…….............108-.........(-100)

McClelSum……..…612……612….…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…41.4…….43.6….…63 ............22.2

Bear:………… 29.9……….28.7……… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……37.8/44.6….28.0/48.8…….…..

Baltic Dry Index ……3520……..3703…….11700……663

Bullish%- …….…57………..57sell………….…88.....2

*Insider corp sellers.7:1…………9:1…………108:1………….2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows .. (.3B)……(.7B)…

ETF InflowsL……… (3.2B)…..(1.9B)….


www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.




With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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