GROUNDHOG DAY?:

Does it seem to the reader that every day is the same? Futures up overnight, market jumps up at the open to arb the futures, and rises steadily through the day. At Charles Biderman's very interesting TSAA meeting last Wednesday, he did not talk much about his "Conspiracy" theory - of the gov't propping the only vehicle it hasn't used yet to inspire confidence in the economy. He did say, as he did many times on CNBC, Bloomberg, etc., that he has no clue on what money drove the $7T rise this past year. If true, our gov't has multiple tricky withdrawals besides MBSs and the Treasury market. Then there is that anonymous $600T derivative market out there somewhere.

This past week was much like the previous in the sentiment area - getting more to extremes are the Bullish per cent, up a point to 83; New Highs 30:1 over Lows; my cumulative A/D is at another new high; and the I.I. Bull/Bear spread is getting wider and more complacently bullish 48 -20.

Not much money came out of MMFs last week, and still almost none went into stock MUFs (mutual funds).

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10850	10741	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2415	2374	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1174	1159	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	55	54	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	17.8	17.0	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-19	-1	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	1258	1264	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	48.9	46.1	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	20.5	21.3	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	32.4	35.4	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	34.7	29.9	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.67	0.64	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	1.4B
Money Market Flows	-4B	-74B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Feb.750B	Jan.731B
Baltic Dry Index:	3098	3379	11700	663
Bullish %:	83	82	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	19:1	27:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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GROUNDHOG DAY?:

MARCH MADNESS:

"We're not in Kansas anymore", nor is President Obama's (and my) pick for the NCAA tourney! Hope he does better with financing the healthcare bill.

Gurus Kudlow and Cramer of CNBC were sure that the passage of the bill would doom (not deem) the economy with taxes and costs, but so far this overbought market on steroids keeps inching higher on lighter Volume. A record $74B came out of MMFs last week ($250B YTD, but all went into bonds -short term, junk, etc. Not many indicators at extremes, although the I.I. Bears are dwindling down to a precious few at 21%; breadth, at least through Thursday, was strong -new highs vs. lows; but the McClellan Summation is getting a bit toppy, as is the Bullish %, or stocks on BUY signals.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10741	10624	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2374	2367	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1159	1150	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	54	50	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	17.0	17.6	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-1	51	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	1264	1109	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	46.1	44.9	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	21.3	23.6	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	35.4	45.3	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	29.9	25.3	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.66	0.6	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	1.4B
Money Market Flows	-74B	-36.2B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Jan.731B	Dec.777B
Baltic Dry Index:	3379	3316	11700	663
Bullish %:	82	80	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	27:1	48:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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MARCH MADNESS:

BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH ! :

The Ides of March, quadruple-witching, and the anniversary of the '09 Bull market are upon us. To paraphrase the dual Chinese symbol - where there is strength there is also the probability of a temporarily overstretched market.

The bullishness of this steady rally on huge breadth - my cumulative advance/decline total is setting its second straight record- is being done on below average Volume; the New Hi/Lo numbers are obscene: 898 to7 on the NYSE; the A/D was EXACTLY 2:1. Possibly Charles Biderman can shed some light on market flows next week when he comes before the TSAA group (www.tsaasf.org).

CEO Insider selling jumped to the highest since Jan. 8 (following the Sept.25 superhigh); the McClellan Oscillator is still just above +50, (my benchmark), coming down from +75. The Bullish per cent - stocks on Buy signals, jumped to 80%, off its 88 high, Nova/Ursa ratio of Bulls to Bear is at a complacent high 66.

Money market outflows are huge, but they do not seem to be going into stocks (negative last week).

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10624	10566	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2367	2326	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1150	1138	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	50	59	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	17.6	17.4	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	51	75	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	1109	804	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	44.9	42.1	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	23.6	22.7	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	35.9	34.9	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	25.3	26.2	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.66	0.6	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	-1.5B
Money Market Flows	-39.7B	-1.6B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Jan.731B	Dec.777B
Baltic Dry Index:	3316	3242	11700	663
Bullish %:	80	76	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	48:1	18:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH ! :

THE DEATH OF SENTIMENT:

In this week's Barron's the Other Voices column is a startling article about HFT, or High Frequency Trading, which now comprises 73% of the equities markets - how can one be a Contrarian to computers that scalp split-second anomalies by algorithms, presenting such a danger to investors, as in 2007, when they jointly pulled the liquidity, unlike Specialists that make "orderly markets"?

I used to liken investing to playing poker in the World Series of Poker - now I revise that to playing chess against a computer that has no emotion!

It is for this reason that, with my book coming out last Friday on Amazon.com, I had originally written it as an alternative to MMFs, CDs, T-Bills - I now think it is also the best way to invest in stocks. Titled Zero (In)Tolerance, it sells for just under $15, and describes the strategy, with actual results, of how to obtain high returns without the appreciation (HOPE) and much of the risk (FEAR), by buying dividend stocks and selling call options 10% under the buy price, ensuring a safety net against most corrections - as in May of '09 and this past January. Please see more at : brentleonard.com

Last week's sentiment and breadth indicators, for what they're worth, show huge MMF redemptions, and a rare (albeit slight) inflow into domestic equities. This month's TSAA meeting in San Francisco is with Charles Biderman of TrimTabs - the guru on fund flows; it should be quite revealing. TA scored a coup in this week's Barron's Market Watch, with both Martin Pring and Tom McClellan writing advisory letters.

Tom's Oscillator went to a cautionary +75 last week, and the Adv/Dec was over 2700-400, with New His/Los at 743 to 6 . Also showing a warning are the Bullish %, a record AAII neutral reading, and the Nova/Ursa fund ratio.

Here are the stats:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10566	10325	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2326	2238	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1138	1104	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	59	70	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	17.4	19.5	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	75	316	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	804	506	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	42.1	41.1	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	22.7	23.3	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	35.9	34.9	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	26.2	29.5	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.6	0.55	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	151M
Money Market Flows	-1.6B	-37.7B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Jan.731B	Dec.777B
Baltic Dry Index:	3242	2707	11700	663
Bullish %:	76	71	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	18:1	32:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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THE DEATH OF SENTIMENT:

CAPITALISM OR CAPITOLISM?:

In my view, despite the nascent recovery underway, the gov't still wants to intervene in its awkward way ( my book proof has been 10 days so far in getting to me via the U.S.Postpartum Service). Hypothetically speaking, if the Fed had lowered rates via the Taylor Rule to 3% instead of zero, the $3+T in MMFs and at least an equal amount of T-Bills, CDs, etc. would have earned its holders $180B a year more (1/5th of the Stimulus without the debt) and consumers would be much more confident and happy - just my take.

Sentiment and the markets remain lamb-like so far in March, with the only extremes the CBOE put/call ratio at 70 puts over calls - the highest since Oct.1 of '09, the middle of the rally - other high numbers occurred in July - the start of the huge upsurge; and an 84 reading March 6 - A Day That Will Live.....

While breadth remains strong, survey letters and CEO selling are getting a bit toppy.

Here are the stats:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10325	10402	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2238	2243	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1104	1109	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	70	64	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	19.5	20.0	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	31	56	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	506	345	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	41.1	35.6	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	23.3	27.8	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	34.9	35.9	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	29.5	35.2	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.55	0.50	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	0
Money Market Flows	-1.6B	-37.7B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Jan.731B	Dec.777B
Baltic Dry Index:	2707	2704	11700	663
Bullish %:	71	69	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	32:1	35:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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CAPITALISM OR CAPITOLISM?: