To show how much of a mixed bag they are this week, the Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear ratio is signalling danger with only 28% Bears, while the AAII ratio is the opposite, signalling 28% Bulls!
Bullish % remains on a Sell signal, still in the high overbought range of 57; ETFs and Mutual Funds had slight Outflows, and the VIX is exhibiting a recent complacent low of 25.
Meanwhile, the most reliable indicator at market bottoms (100%)- the CBOE Equity put/call ratio, is still at a high 71, a Bullish area!
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 6/26/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 8438………8539.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1838………1827…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 918…………921………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call …73………….66……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 25.9………28.0…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear
McClellan Osc………-2…………-43……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…612……….823……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…43.6……….44.8……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 28.7………26.4…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……28.0/48.8….33.3/46.4…….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Baltic Dry Index ……3703……..4070…………….11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…57sell…….64sell………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers.9:1…………19:1……………108:1………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows .. (.7B)…….8B
ETF InflowsL……… (1.9B)….(.5B)
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
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| 10-year | H(igh)/ |
| INDICATOR | ALPHA- | HI/LOW | L(ow) |
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| RANGE | wanted |
| CBOE equity put/call | a | 98/46 | H=Bull |
| VIX-Volatility Index | b | 90/8 | L=Bull |
| McClellan Oscillator | c | 108/-100 | H=o/bot |
| McClellan Summation | d | 1568/-1500 | H=o/bot |
| NEWSLETTERS: |
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| Invest.Intell. | e | 62/16 | inverted |
| A.A.I.I. | f |
| inverted |
| NYSE/NAS short int. | g |
| n/a |
| CEO Insider Selling:1 | h | 108/2.4 | H=Bear |
| SDS (SHORTetf) Volume | i | 451/24 | H=Bull |
| Bullish Per Cent | j | 82/2 | L=Bull |
| FUND Inflows:Mutual | k |
| n/a |
| ETF inflows | l |
| n/a |
| Rydex Nova/Ursa funds |
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| BOTTOMS | EXTREME |
| REVERSAL | INDICATORS |
| DATE | (see Column 2) |
| 10/11/2002 | a(76),b,e,f |
| 2/3/2003 | a(98),b,c,f, |
| 4/15/2005 | a(78),c,f, |
| 10/13/2005 | a(76), c,d,f, |
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| 6/13/2006 | a(73),d,f, |
| 3/14/2007 | a(84),f, |
| 8/17/2007 | a(91),b,c,d,f,j |
| 11/26/2007 | a(76),b, c,d,f,j, |
| 1/22/2008 | a(92),b,c,f,j(19) |
| 3/14/2008 | a(94),b,c,d,e,f,g,i,j, |
| 11/20/2008 | a(104),b,c,d,e,f,I,j(8), |
| 3/9/2009 | a(84), b,c,d,e,f,I,j(13) |
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| f=18vs70 |
| L(ow)
| REVERSAL | INDICATORS-TOPS |
| wanted | DATE |
|
| L(ow) | 2/13/2004 | d(1364),e,f(69/13),j(88) |
| H(igh)/ | 3/4/2005 | d,e,f,j(74) |
| L=o/sold | 5/10/2006 | f, |
| L=o/sold | 2/20/2007 | d, h,j(79) |
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| 10/8/2007 | c(50),f,j(80), |
| H/L | 12/10/2007 | c, |
| H/L | 5/2/2008 | b,f(53/26),h, |
| n/a | 1/2/2009 | b, c(108),i, |
| H(igh)/ | 6/12/2009 | d(1123),e,j(74) |
| Low |
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