As the cumulus clouds accumulate for the winter, so do the worry clouds of Sentiment gather!
The excellent commentary from Barron's and elsewhere combine with the Sentiment Indicators to cause concern about the future:
Margin Debt, which is stated monthly, is at record high, as traders use low interest rates to escape zirp (zero rates); Barron's Big Money poll of their expert money managers shows only 8% are Bearish, as Insider Selling stays at high levels with key employes/officers sell their company stock.
It has been over 500 days since the market has had a meaningful correction - not the longest, as stretches of twice and thrice that have occurred recently - ending in catastrophes of 2000 and 2008.
Money is racing into tech stocks like 1999 - PCLN, GOOG, NFLX, etc., as well as into unproven IPOs. Research charts I've saved show that the 1% of the rich versus everyone else is the highest since 1929; likewise, national debt to GDP is worse than 1929. With the Boomers retiring for the next two decades and the U.S. birthrate (as well as net immigration) declining, GDP looks to worsen to 2% or below, per national studies. Unemployment remains high, especially among the young, who are counted on to replenish Social Security and other entitlements (Obamacare), along with immigrants who are also low-earners.
Finally, my cycle work shows the 4-year President cycle tends consistently to sell off the second year of the election cycle (2014) as it has since WWII.
Here are the numbers:
| Date> |
|
10/25/2013 |
10/18/2013 |
| Indices: |
DJIA |
15570 |
15400 |
|
NAZ |
3943 |
3914 |
|
SPX |
1759 |
1744 |
| WklyVolume
(Bshs). |
9.6/3.5 |
8.8/3.7 |
| NASD/NYSE |
|
|
|
| Specul.Ratio
hi=bullish |
2.74 |
2.38 |
| Sentiment: |
put/call-CBOE |
58 |
54 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 |
13.1 |
13 |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. |
2047/1145 |
2539/642 |
| Weekly Net: |
|
902 |
1897 |
| Cumulative: |
154367 |
153465 |
| Weekly |
NYSE hi/low |
688/40 |
581/125 |
| New Hi's/Low's |
Nasdaq h/l |
681/64 |
576/59 |
| McClellan |
Oscillator |
46 |
62 |
| McClellanSum |
.+750/-1000 |
513 |
257 |
| Newsletter |
Inv.Intel -Bull:tues |
49.5 |
42.3 |
| Surveys |
Bear:-5yrs |
18.5 |
21.6 |
|
AAII -Bull :wed. |
*49.2 |
46.3 |
|
Bear |
**17.6 |
24.9 |
| COT:SPX w/w |
large/small (net)k |
8/15 |
gov't |
| COT:gold comm.hedg |
long-short.000 |
(78K) |
shutdown |
| CEOinsider |
selling |
41:1 |
38:1 |
| 3-box rev |
Bullish%- |
81 |
80 |
| US equity -ICI |
Fund Flows |
WeekDelay |
WeekDelay |
| MMF flows |
Change in $B |
54B |
(52B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) |
monthly |
*10 mo.hi |
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ |
Int'l/Bond-$B |
**21 mo.low |
| 2-yr
Tsy Yield: Inflation |
0.31% |
0.32% |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding.
For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
Subscribe in a reader
WINTER IS ACUMEN IN:
