Monday, July 13, 2009

SURPRISE, SURPRISE:

Who would not be surprised by the abrupt intraday turnaround in the markets today (Monday)? Anyone who has followed this blog's recent 10-year wrapup of effective Sentiment Indicators - specifically the 100% correct CBOE Equity put/call ratio, calling 12 of 12 major bottoms (zero tops). Over the weekend it was noted that this ratio hit an extreme of 80, after a quite high 75 last week.
Another quite accurate Indicator - the McClellan Oscillator- also moved down to a negative 44 last week, nearing my -50 benchmark; and the AAII Bull/Bear survey went to extreme with a 27.9 to 54.7 ratio displaying very few Bulls in their ranks. Also notable this week is the addition of the Rydex Nova to Ursa (bear) fund ratio, newly re-added to the mix, mainly because it hit a new low of 0.62 (fewer Bulls to Bears ).
In addition, the U. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment dipped from 70.8% to 64.6%.
Here are the recent numbers:

MktSentiment. 7/10/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8146………8280.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1756………1796…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 879…………896………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …80……..75….…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 29.0……….. 27.9…….…….90…….….8.8

McClellan Osc…-44…….-19…………..108……..(-100) McClelSum……..368…………612…….…....1568-....-1514

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…42.7………..41.4………….…63 ……...22.2l

Bear:………… 30.3……….29.9…………… 54.4.......16-

AAII-Bull/Bear ……27.9/54.7….37.8/44.6…….…..n/a

Nova/Ursa MF……… 0.62………0.76…………….2.2……..0.62

Baltic Dry Index ……2985……..3520………….11700………663

Bullish%- …….…47………….57………….…88…….....2

*Insider corp sellers.13:1…………7:1……………108:1…….2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows .. (1.3B)…..(.3B)…

ETF InflowsL……… .7B……..(3.2B)…

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

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