GREEN SHOOTS VS.LAWNMOWER:

Even though the new administration is using the only tool available to mend a broken recovery with little pain and discomfort, the Stimulus will probably lend temporary relief , even create a dependency. It would be greatly disappointing if all the money and positive verbiage thrown at the economy did not have some rebounding effect.
Contrarians usually disagree with Conventional Wisdom, especially when such great minds such as Niall Ferguson, Bob Prechter, Louise Yamada, et.alia all agree that we should at least test the March lows or go lower after this brief relief rally ends in weeks or months. Even partisans such as Reich and Krugman have disagreements with policy.
Last week's Sentiment and Breadth numbers shown below were barely moved from the prior week - exceptions were a huge upward move in the Baltic Dry Index (still at 1/3 of its ultimate high) to 3494; although the Investors' Intelligence Bull-to-Bear survey was not available at press time, the AAII small investor postcards showed an inversion to Bearish dominance (Bullish FOR the market).
The ATR (Average True Range) of market highs and lows for 4 weeks have been little changed, as have the CEO Insider selling, Mutual Fund flows, short interest, etc. This pig in a python contraction could bode for a strong June, as we have seen today (Monday).

MktSentiment. 5/29/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8500……….8277.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1774……….1692…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 919…………887………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …61………….64……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 28.9………32.6…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………10…………-29……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull

McClelSum……….…1058……..1076……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…n/a…………40.7……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull

Bear:………… n/a…………29.1…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……40.4/48.6…..33.7/45.4…….…..18.9/70.3 n/a

Baltic Dry Index ……3494………2786…………….11700…………………663

Bullish%- …….…66…………..65………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull

*Insider corp sellers.12:1………..13:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)

Mutual Fund Inflows .. .3B…… .8B

ETF InflowsL……… 1.1B……… .7B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

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GREEN SHOOTS VS.LAWNMOWER: