It has to be asked how much credence a business that features Paris Hilton, Maury Povich, Natalie Holloway, etc. to garner eyeballs can be trusted to offer daily advice from the very pundits that got us into this economic mess. Who selects which bearish or bullish guest to "explain" the reason for securities' movements, and what is their agenda?
Hard as it is, it is indisputable that making decisions on actionable information (technical and fundamental) is far better than being sold advice (see what they DO, not what they SAY!).
That said, do your best to interpret the following sentiment facts:
After a record runup in stock prices this Spring, indices seem to have levelled off into a trading range, after testing the 200-day EMA. Yet many indicators have a bearish signal this week - the ratio-adjusted McClellan Summation Index is quite high at 1163, and the Bullish per cent (stocks on a BUY signal) is at its recent high of 74 - also overbought.
Investors' Intelligence newsletter surveys are at a recent low in Bears - 25%, with the AAII not far behind. CEO Insider Selling almost doubled last week to 21:1 over Buyers. Here are the actual numbers:
MktSentiment. 6/5/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 8763……….8500.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1849………1774…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 940…………919………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call …63…………..61……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 29.6……….28.9…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear
McClellan Osc………12…………10……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…1163……..1058……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…42.5………..40.9……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 25.3………..28.4…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……47.6/36.6…..40.4/48.6…….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Baltic Dry Index ……3809………3494…………….11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…74………….66………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers.21:1………..12:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows .. 1.3B……. .3B
ETF InflowsL……… 2.7B…….1.1B
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
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