PRICE-LESS:

Of my two trips to wonderful downtown Sunnyvale last week, the one Saturday to hear Price Headley talk for 5 hours on Technical Analysis and Metastock indicators - I believe Price used to work for Bernie Schaeffer, the Sentiment guru, before becoming one of the rising stars in market analysis- was by far the most worthwhile.
The Thursday event with Stan Ehrlich, despite his years of experience and accomplishments, was a non-event. I would recommend the reader to check out BigTrends.com for Price's information. At the beginning of the talk he polled the audience of @ 100 how it viewed the 1-month, 6-month and 1-year time frames. At the break, the results were revealed to be most Bullish for all three -with predictions of 1249, 1441, and 1550 on the S&P 500, respectively - I, contrarily, was not among the last two, sharing Martin Pring's Lost Decade scenario for a few more years - hence my DITM strategy (see ditmcalls.blogspot.com if unfamiliar).
Speaking of Sentiment, I was surprised Sunday night to see the futures quite positive for Monday's opening, but overnight they slipped into strong negative territory - no doubt due (not) to European uncertainty by the media. The signal I saw for a short term overbought condition was a plus 80 on the McClellan Oscillator - a very reliable Indicator.
Especially after such a strong runup last week. Volume was quite weak on the upturn, and several Bullish Indicators regressed to the mean last week.In fact the Inv.Intell. ratio showed more Bulls than Bears for the first time in over a month. The Bullish % of stocks on a Buy signal leapt from 29 to 55 on the Pt.& Fig. chart, and Insider Selling also jumped from a super low 3:1 to 30:1
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	11644	11103	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2667	2479	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1224	1155	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	66	74	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	28	36	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	80	9	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	(74)	(386)	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	34.4	34.4	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	46.35.2	45.2	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	39.8	35.2	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	36.4	45.7	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(4.2B)
Money Market Flows	(3B)	5B
Baltic Dry Index:	2155	2000	11700	663
Bullish %:	55	29	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	30:1	3:1	235:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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PRICE-LESS:

IT NEVER RAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA - IT POURS !:

Back from vacation, where the weather was as volatile as the stock market, I was happy to see little damage to my DITM covered call strategy, made whole by today's rally. Although the VIX came off the 4 handle down to 36, the CBOE equity put/call ratio zoomed up to 74 - good for the market (as we saw today). NYSE new highs to lows were an incredible 33 to 1,296; 23/947 on the OTC. Both newsletter surveys - Inv.Intell. and AAII remained inverted, with more Bears. Insider selling to buying was a lowly 3:1 ratio. Money actually went into MMFs for the first time in a month; monthly data on ETFs showed money coming out of equity and international funds -level in bonds. The 2010 support level on the SPX (S&P500) held at 1100 -now trying to break resistance at 1200.

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	11103	10913	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2479	2415	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1155	1131	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	74	72	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	36	43	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	9	na	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	(386)	(na)	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	34.4	37.6	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	45.2	40.9	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	35.2	32.5	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	45.7	46.8	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(5.7B)
Money Market Flows	5.0B	(1.7B)
Baltic Dry Index:	2000	na	11700	663
Bullish %:	29	22	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	3:1	na	235:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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IT NEVER RAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA - IT POURS !:

1,000 POINTS OF DARK!:

Talk about mood swings! The last 2 weeks have seen intraday swings of nearly 1,000 DJIA points, mostly on European news - today's big upswing is due to more great news from them - LEVERAGE of CMBSs to solve the debt problem - why didn't we think of that before?
While most sentiment indicators are stuck in "eyes in the headlights" of the Sept.-Oct. period, equity mutual funds have seen losses of $75B the past 6 months - a good contrarian sign. Exceptions include week-to-week swings on the McClellan Oscillator, from plus 47 to minus 42 -pretty much my entire bounded range, now indicating (today's) market rise - at least short term; i.e. end-of-quarter. Although new highs to new lows are 1:12 on both the NYSE and NASD, up-down stocks (A/D) swung from  plus 1318(net) to minus 2431.
Bull/bear surveys remain inverted (Bullish FOR the market), with the AAII 25 vs. 40; and insider selling is down to 10:1, hardly climactic. My recently followed indicator - Commitment of Traders- finally show small traders net short for the past 4 weeks, although large traders have been short for months (smart money).
As seen below, my matrix of indicators has resurfaced after I was sabotaged by googledocs; thanks much to the able help of my expert tech person in Florida. If anyone wants very reasonable and experienced (30+ years, including NASA) online help, please contact him at :gort3ster@gmail.com. I guarantee he is much less than the recent quote I got elsewhere at $125/hour.

Here is the matrix:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10771	11509	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2483	2622	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1136	1216	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	73	69	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	41	31	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	(42)	47	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	(335)	(205)	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	37.6	35.5	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	39.8	40.9	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	25.3	30.5	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	48.0	41.3	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(2.7B)
Money Market Flows	(11.8B)	(16.4B)
Baltic Dry Index:	1907	1838	11700	663
Bullish %:	35	51	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	10:1	10:1	235:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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1,000 POINTS OF DARK!:

CONVENTIONAL STUPIDITY:

As everyone knows by now, unemployment is at record high levels, especially for young people, and getting a job right out of college is very difficult - and the financial sector is even worse. Barron's magazine reports that a survey was done on Harvard MBAs over the past 20 years: when 30% head for Wall St. after graduation, the market invariably tanks - when only 10% do so, the market rallies. Despite today's job outlook, the percentage is 37!

Last week's 5 up days was likely a countertrend rally; from July's high, the SPX has dropped (leg A) into a Flag formation (upward trend channel, showing a possible H&S top within a greater H&S top) - if leg C down equals leg A, we can see the market drop to below 1000 by 2012 (also a Pt.& Fig. target). The global economy and political standoffs indicate this scenario.

Sentiment Indicators, however (thanks to last week's rally) seem benign: the CBOE put/call ratio is down to 69; the VIX at 31. The reliable McClellan Oscillator jumped from a minus 34 to a plus 47, indicating a short selloff (today). On the positive front, the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio has joined the AAII one in being inverted, which is contrarily Bullish; and the Commitment of Traders shows the small trader finally getting Bearish on Sept.2, possibly late to the party.

Despite the weekly rally, New Lows bested New Highs 5:1 in the NYSE and NASD, not a broad rally. CEO Insider trading is still low on the selling side, and money flew out of MMFs, but not into stocks.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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CONVENTIONAL STUPIDITY:

GREECE - A CAR CRASH IN SLOW MOTION:

As Europe brings down the western global economies, the U.S. stock market continues to flirt with a Bear market - something that has happened no more than 2 times per decade since 1900 and no less than 1. Last week showed rather tame indicators, thanks to the up-down nature of the Holiday week. The CBOE put/call ratio did rise to 75 from 67; and the VIX from 33 to 38. The McClellan Oscillator is -34, which is good to see if you are Bullish. Also, the AAII sentiment inverted again to 30 Bulls/40 Bears -a good sign. Money continues to flow into MMFs (probably from Europe, which doesn't trust its own paper), but not into equities.

My Google docs. seems to have contracted a bug and will not let me reproduce the template this issue. As a bonus, however, my www.ditmcalls.blogspot.com blog outlines a fairly safe way to play Uncle Ben's new Twist strategy for a 9% annualized return.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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GREECE - A CAR CRASH IN SLOW MOTION:

LABOR PAINS:

Despite last Friday's huge selloff, the weekly sentiment numbers actually moderated off their worse levels from the weeks before; however, as of this Labor Day, futures are looking grim behind Europe's increasing debt problems, with the DJIA futures at the triple zero 11,000, down 240. The recent rally, per Barron's Trader, was on OTC type stocks, not a great sign of institutional longterm investing.
This continues to be a great buying opportunity of quality, dividend-paying stocks - at least until (for me) the S&P500 breaks and stays below 1100 (it is now 1173, heading lower). That is 2010 Support.
Major changes in the Sentiment Indicators were a big upmove in the Bullish %, and the AAII Bull/Bear REverting itself from inverted recently - a sign of complacency from last Tuesday's release.

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	11240	11284	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2480	2479	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1173	1176	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	67	72	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	33.9	35.6	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	10	(1)	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	(290)	(627)	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	40.9	40.9	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	36.6	33.3	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	38.6	36.4	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	32.3	41.0	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(2.6B)
Money Market Flows	8B	(2.1B)
Baltic Dry Index:	1682	1582	11700	663
Bullish %:	52	27	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	9:1	4:1	235:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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LABOR PAINS:

TIME OUT:

Like most of the stock market Buyers, I shall be taking a vacation next week, so there will be no blog next Monday ( I'll be tracking the data for cumulative statistics, however).
Despite the horrendous volatility last week, the Sentiment Indicators were much more benign than the previous week: Although the McClellan Oscillator dropped to its floor, minus 42, the Summation actually rose. Newsletter surveys, which come out midweek, were stable, but the VIX broke above 40 again, a bottoming signal at some point. Money left equity mutual funds into MMFunds.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10817	11269	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2341	2507	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1123	1178	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	87	85	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	43.0	36.4	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	(42)	(8)	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	(618)	(621)	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	46.2	47.3	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	23.7	23.7	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	35.6	33.4	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	39.8	44.8	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(23.5B)
Money Market Flows	10.2B	52.8B
Baltic Dry Index:	1287	1287	11700	663
Bullish %:	22	23	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	9:1	4:1	235:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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TIME OUT: