While most sentiment indicators are stuck in "eyes in the headlights" of the Sept.-Oct. period, equity mutual funds have seen losses of $75B the past 6 months - a good contrarian sign. Exceptions include week-to-week swings on the McClellan Oscillator, from plus 47 to minus 42 -pretty much my entire bounded range, now indicating (today's) market rise - at least short term; i.e. end-of-quarter. Although new highs to new lows are 1:12 on both the NYSE and NASD, up-down stocks (A/D) swung from plus 1318(net) to minus 2431.
Bull/bear surveys remain inverted (Bullish FOR the market), with the AAII 25 vs. 40; and insider selling is down to 10:1, hardly climactic. My recently followed indicator - Commitment of Traders- finally show small traders net short for the past 4 weeks, although large traders have been short for months (smart money).
As seen below, my matrix of indicators has resurfaced after I was sabotaged by googledocs; thanks much to the able help of my expert tech person in Florida. If anyone wants very reasonable and experienced (30+ years, including NASA) online help, please contact him at :gort3ster@gmail.com. I guarantee he is much less than the recent quote I got elsewhere at $125/hour.
Here is the matrix:
| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
| DJIA: | 10771 | 11509 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2483 | 2622 | 2861 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1136 | 1216 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 73 | 69 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 41 | 31 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | (42) | 47 | 108 | (123) |
| McClellan Sum: | (335) | (205) | 1568 | (1514) |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 37.6 | 35.5 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 39.8 | 40.9 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 25.3 | 30.5 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 48.0 | 41.3 | n/a | n/a |
| US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | (2.7B) | ||
| Money Market Flows | (11.8B) | (16.4B) | ||
| Baltic Dry Index: | 1907 | 1838 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 35 | 51 | 89 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 10:1 | 10:1 | 235:1 | 2.4:1 |
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