The Thursday event with Stan Ehrlich, despite his years of experience and accomplishments, was a non-event. I would recommend the reader to check out BigTrends.com for Price's information. At the beginning of the talk he polled the audience of @ 100 how it viewed the 1-month, 6-month and 1-year time frames. At the break, the results were revealed to be most Bullish for all three -with predictions of 1249, 1441, and 1550 on the S&P 500, respectively - I, contrarily, was not among the last two, sharing Martin Pring's Lost Decade scenario for a few more years - hence my DITM strategy (see ditmcalls.blogspot.com if unfamiliar).
Speaking of Sentiment, I was surprised Sunday night to see the futures quite positive for Monday's opening, but overnight they slipped into strong negative territory - no doubt due (not) to European uncertainty by the media. The signal I saw for a short term overbought condition was a plus 80 on the McClellan Oscillator - a very reliable Indicator.
Especially after such a strong runup last week. Volume was quite weak on the upturn, and several Bullish Indicators regressed to the mean last week.In fact the Inv.Intell. ratio showed more Bulls than Bears for the first time in over a month. The Bullish % of stocks on a Buy signal leapt from 29 to 55 on the Pt.& Fig. chart, and Insider Selling also jumped from a super low 3:1 to 30:1
Here are the numbers:
| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
| DJIA: | 11644 | 11103 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2667 | 2479 | 2861 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1224 | 1155 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 66 | 74 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 28 | 36 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | 80 | 9 | 108 | (123) |
| McClellan Sum: | (74) | (386) | 1568 | (1514) |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 34.4 | 34.4 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 46.35.2 | 45.2 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 39.8 | 35.2 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 36.4 | 45.7 | n/a | n/a |
| US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | (4.2B) | ||
| Money Market Flows | (3B) | 5B | ||
| Baltic Dry Index: | 2155 | 2000 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 55 | 29 | 89 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 30:1 | 3:1 | 235:1 | 2.4:1 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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