The MOOD is DOOM

Monday, February 22, 2016

The MOOD is DOOM

More and more credible (IMO) market analysts are calling for up to 50% Bear market ahead. From Barron's last week - John Hussman, and John Mauldin's goto - GaveKal. Just like gloomanddoomer James Davidson, They cite the CAPE ratio from R. Shiller on 10-year EPS overvaluation and Global Debt. Also an extended Market Capitalization to GDP ratio. It would be wise to heed this eventuality - my choice to hedge is TVIX and DXD inverse ETFs.

A Recession, however, seems to be off the table for now - they are usually preceded by an uptick in both Oil and Unemployment (not on the radar so far). Most seem to occur on 0 years of the Decennial cycle.

In a shortened week the sharp rise came early - enough for the two newsletter surveys to see - although they still both remain Bearish; the put/call ratio is high, as is the McClellan Oscillator (51), as we see the market take off today. Money flows see $$ going into MMFs and global Gold ETFs.

Here are the numbers:

Date>	2016	2/19/2016	2/12/2016
Indices:	DJIA	16391	15973
	NAZ	4504	4337
	SPX	1917	1864
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.2/4.7*	12.3/6.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.74	2.01
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	78	83
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		20.5	25.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2683/516	728/2476
Weekly Net:		2167	-1748
Cumulative:		157510	155343
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	76/116	144/978
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	48/178	31/920
McClellan	Oscillator	51	-4
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-467	-668
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	26.5	24.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	39.8	39.2
Wed.	AAII -Bull	27.4	19.2
	Bear	37.8	48.7
US$-WSJ		96.6	96
3-box rev	Bullish%-	47	30
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(3.6B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	7.5B	3.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		461B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.75%	0.71%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.3	111.6

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