As GGU's Dr. Hank Pruden pointed out in last Saturday's excellent fact-filled 2-hour promo for his upcoming class - Double Helix Power of Combining Wyckoff and Elliott Wave Method, except for the DJIA, markets have been making lower lows - not a good sign.
As shown below, both newsletter surveys (which report Tues. and Wed.) report large numbers of BEARS (Bullish FOR the market). And with the rest of the globe going to Negative interest rates, holding Gold with no dividends isn't such a bad idea, especially if it is oversold these past months.
Even the 2-year Treas. yield is dropping fast - from above 1% recently to 0.71%.
Finally, since writing my book on DITM ( Deep-In-The-Money) covered call options in 2010, the current environment looks like the best it's been since then: quality stock prices have dropped bigtime; which makes the dividend yield that much higher; and dropping prices makes huge increases in the IV (Volatility) of call options, which one is selling. Being ITM also gives a nice cushion for the stock to drop even further.
Here are the numbers from last week:
Date> | 2016 | 2/12/2016 | 2/5/2016 |
Indices: | DJIA | 15973 | 16204 |
NAZ | 4337 | 4363 | |
SPX | 1864 | 1880 | |
WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 12.3/6.1 | 11.2/5.6 |
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.01 | 2 | |
Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 83 | 78 |
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 25.4 | 23.4 | |
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 728/2476 | 1072/2133 | |
Weekly Net: | -1748 | -1061 | |
Cumulative: | 155343 | 157091 | |
Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 144/978 | 197/378 |
New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 31/920 | 54/464 |
McClellan | Oscillator | -4 | 15 |
McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | -668 | -560 |
Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 24.7 | 34 |
Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 39.2 | 38.1 |
Wed. | AAII -Bull | 19.2 | 27.6 |
Bear | 48.7 | 34.7 | |
US$-WSJ | 96 | 97 | |
3-box rev | Bullish%- | 30 | 38 |
US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekLate | 2.3B |
MMF flows | Change in $B | 3.2B | (4.2B) |
MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 461B | DEC. |
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.71% | 0.73% | |
TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 111.6 | 111.4 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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