This Volatile stock market is getting harder and harder to figure - especially with Fundamental data coming out every day. Veteran analysts such as Laszlo Birinyi and now Jeremy Seigel say the market is going to scream upwards for the next couple of years - but it is hard to see that right now with both Technicals and Fundamentals looking so weak. Take your pick.
Mid- October is what we call a CMJ - Critical Market Juncture most years. Just look back at 2008, 2001, 2002, 1987, 1929, et.al. They always resulted in nice V-Spikes, but one never knows when the downslope ends.
Last week ended the 3rd Quarter, the worst in 4 years, with a huge rally - but it could be deceptive. Market breadth was still negative, with Advances below Declines, despite Friday's huge rally - the New Lows to Highs were amazing - on the NYSE they were 30 to 1 !!!, 10:1 on the Nasdaq.
On the positive side, short term, the newsletter surveys (Bulls and Bears) were inverted in favor of BEARS, which is a contrary sign. Weekly Volume was also large - an important Technical confirmation signal which main media seems to ignore (CNBC, Bloomie).
HERE ARE THE WEEKLY NUMBERS:
| Date> | 10/2/2015 | 9/25/2015 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 16472 | 16314 |
| NAZ | 4707 | 4686 | |
| SPX | 1951 | 1931 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 11.3/5.4 | 9.6/4.6 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.1 | 2.1 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 79 | 72 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 20.9 | 23.6 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1444/1805 | 1057/2179 | |
| Weekly Net: | 361 | -1122 | |
| Cumulative: | 158635 | 158274 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 26/795 | 53/453 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 61/618 | 94/347 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 21 | -10 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | -452 | -365 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 24.7 | 26 |
| Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 35.1 | 30.2 |
| Wed. | AAII -Bull | 28.1 | 32.1 |
| Bear | 39.9 | 28.7 | |
| US$-WSJ | 88.5 | 88.9 | |
| CEOinsider | selling | .30:1 | .50:1 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 31 | 36 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | week delay | 0 |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | 8.4B | 14B |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | AUG: | 473B |
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ | Int'l/Bond-$B | JUL: | 1275/509/321 |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.59% | 0.70% | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 111.7 | 110.1 |
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