Time to hedge the downside for stocks, or bail out crying like John Boehner. Even CalSTRS, the second biggest pension fund is selling 12% of its 55% in stocks to hedge Risk, and buy Treasurys (???). Even the best analysts are mixed in future direction: Laszlo Birinyi sees the S&P 500 - 80% of stocks- up 50% in 2 years; Sam Stoval of Standard and Poor's says a bit further down (to Support) then up.
At a TSAA (Technical Securities) Saturday at GGUniv. 50-year veteran Peter Eliades, is calling for an ugly BEAR market, with the May 21 high in the S&P 500 of 2130 a long term Cycle top. Like most cycle theory, market turns (up or down) are Observable but not Actionable with real money!!
The Sentiment table below shows some changes on Indicators that have not been too reliable recently - Commodity Traders, etc. Last week shows indecision in the newsletter surveys; Insider trading picked up again, after a hiatus recently: from single digit selling (to 1 buyer) up to 50:1. Money Market cash reversed again into buying. Finally, Breadth (advances over declines, new highs over new lows) reversed week over week bigtime.
Here are the numbers.
| Date> | 9/25/2015 | 9/18/2015 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 16314 | 16384 |
| NAZ | 4686 | 4827 | |
| SPX | 1931 | 1958 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | n/a | 9.6/5.9 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | n/a | 1.63 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 72 | 81 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 23.6 | 22.3 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1057/2179 | 1771/1459 | |
| Weekly Net: | -1122 | 312 | |
| Cumulative: | 158274 | 159396 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 53/453 | 73/260 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 94/347 | 143/191 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | -10 | 28 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | -365 | -377 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 26 | 26.8 |
| Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 30.2 | 26.8 |
| Wed. | AAII -Bull | 32.1 | 33.3 |
| Bear | 28.7 | 29.1 | |
| US$-WSJ | 88.9 | 87.9 | |
| CEOinsider | selling | .50:1 | .7:1 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 43 | |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | week delay | (3.2B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | 14B | (16.2B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 473B | AUG. |
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ | Int'l/Bond-$B | 1275/509/321 | JULY |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.70% | 0.69% | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 110.1 | 111.2 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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