According to what I read from my favorite research sources - Bespoke, Sam Stovall of S&P IQ, Dave Rosenberg - we are not through with the market correction - the first one in 4 years. Historically, it could last @ 3 more weeks, or through September, based on studies of corrections back to 1926.
The good news is that when Sept.1 was down more than 1%, the remaining drop was @2% - when August was also down (as it was this year), it is more like a 4% drop. Worst case is just below 15,000 on the DJIA 30, or 20% from its highs.
Two things are troubling - market Breadth - advancing and declining stocks, new highs, etc. crashed down recently to the 5th Standard Deviation (around 98%) for the first time since I was two years old!!
Also, per 60 Minutes report Int'l hacking is getting extreme, to where we could expect a shutdown of the Utility and/or Financial grids from foreign hackers.
Last week's New Highs over Lows was almost 10 to 1, actually an improvement from the previous week of only 18 versus 1456! MMF flows (money markets) reversed to withdrawals from increases; stock mutual funds are still experiencing withdrawals as well.
S&P futures Large traders (smart money (??) was plus 10k, while small traders were shorting 75k, a huge number. Also dramatic, for what it is worth, is CEO Insider Selling of their corporate stock - 3 to 1 over buyers; usually it is in the 30-40:1 range - it was 180:1 sellers in July!
For the numbers go to mktsentiment.blogspot.com
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 9/4/2015 | 8/28/2015 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 16102 | 16643 |
| NAZ | 4683 | 4828 | |
| SPX | 1921 | 1988 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 9.3/5.1 | 12.9/6.5 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 1.82 | 1.98 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 73 | 78 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 27.8 | 26.1 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 857/2373 | 1584/1678 | |
| Weekly Net: | -1516 | -94 | |
| Cumulative: | 158685 | 160201 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 25/227 | 18/1456 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 54/164 | 57/903 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 0 | 21 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | -583 | -612 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 27.8 | 31.6 |
| Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 26.8 | 22.5 |
| Wed. | AAII -Bull | 32.4 | 32.5 |
| Bear | 31.7 | 38.3 | |
| COT:SPX w/w | large/small (net)k | 10k/(75k) | 10k/(56k) |
| COT:gold comm.hedg | long-short.000 | (69k) | (62k) |
| COT:OIL comm.hedg | long-short. | (219k) | 215 |
| US$-WSJ | 89.0 | 88.5 | |
| CEOinsider | selling | .9:1 | .3:1 |
| off.&bd b/s.vs. | 10% holder b/s | discont. | |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 38 | 31 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | weekDelay | (9.8B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | (16.1B) | 9.0B |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 487B | JULY |
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ | Int'l/Bond-$B | 1275/509/321 | JULY |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.71% | 0.72% | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 110.9 | 111.7 |
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