For the fourth time in five weeks, the markets ended
negative, making obvious the January Barometer prognostication for a great year
dubious. Any technician knows that the only guarantee of a projection, based on
a model of Januarys from 1928, is that the market will probably not exactly
replicate the model - however, the market does rhyme!
The negative January model shows a sharp decline in January
!, followed by a shallower on in Feb; an up
March, then down into June. Whereupon the market rises until the year
end, with about a 2% gain. This is based on 33 DOWN Januarys, versus 54 UPs,
and 17 MORE than 5% UPs! Still, it beats Zero % MMFs and CDs!
New Highs on the NYSE broke up through the 600 level,
whereas the NASDAQ stayed negative. Once again, commercial shorts on GOLD set a
new Record High! Over 200. This does not bode well for future gold, as the
Dollar gets stronger.
Insider Selling by Sector continues to fall, in ratio to
Buying - at 14:1, with Media by far the largest Buyers! Spectrum?? Selling was
pretty much across the board. A comment posted to my blog asked when the 235:1
ratio occurred, so I checked. It was May 2011; I also saw that previous highs
were all in April - 2009, 2010, and
April 2011 - indicating perhaps selling to give to the IRS.
Technically, things look pretty bleak, short term - two of
my fellow Adjunct Prof.s from GGU noted the possible (?) H&S Top formation
- yet to be confirmed by a Neckline breech or Volume; I see a possible
Symmetrical triangle (positive ?) short term, if the DJIA and SPX bounce what
appears to be Support levels at 17,100 and 1990.
EFTs, or Exchange Traded Funds, which have been expanding
for awhile ( especially Index ETFs for 9 years now), finally reported this week
(see below), as Int'l and Bond flows stayed the same.
Today's market (Feb.2) is showing at least a temporary ceasing of stocks at their Support levels, as well as Oil, Dollar, and Gold trends. Time will tell. I like three days' closes for confirmation.
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 1/30/2015 | 1/23/2015 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 17164 | 17672 |
| NAZ | 4635 | 4757 | |
| SPX | 1995 | 2051 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 9.9/4.4 | 7.3/3.3 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.25 | 2.21 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 71 | 62 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 21 | 16.7 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1216/2032 | 2083/1152 | |
| Weekly Net: | -816 | 931 | |
| Cumulative: | 164185 | 165001 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 616/245 | 516/165 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 216/257 | 174/243 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | -11 | 16 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 297 | 257 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 53.1 | 49 |
| Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 16.3 | 17.4 |
| AAII -Bull :wed. | 44.2 | 37.1 | |
| Bear | 22.4 | 30.8 | |
| COT:SPX w/w | large/small (net)k | 3k/13k | 4k/12k |
| COT:gold comm.hedg | long-short.000 | (206k) | (178k) |
| CEOinsider | selling | .18:1 | |
| off.&bd b/s.vs. | 10% holder b/s | .160:35 | .160:30 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 62 | 64 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekDelay | .9B |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | (2.5B) | (1.0B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | n/a | |
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ | Int'l/Bond-$B | 1260/415/296 | |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.45% | 0.49% | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 114.17 | |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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