According to the above chart (my latest technological breakthough) although we seem to be in a deflationary spiral - locally as well as globally- the 2-year Treasury rate has risen steadily for the last 12 months. The TIPs ETF at the bottom of my grid (below) has also been rising, but well off the 2012 highs.
Even the Patriots balls seem to be in deflation!
In another great article from Barron's by Steve Sears, the Option guy, he posits that 2015 will bring flat Volatility in the SPX, but a higher one in the VIX. This bodes well for the return of my DITM (Deep-In-The-Money) covered call strategy that did well before the Fed markets kicked in, lowering the premium in call options - hence the lower returns. Although the strategy has the benefit of hedging (selling a call lower than buying the stock), if it really drops, it can erase much of the lesser gains of successful DITM trades. As they say, (Fed) stocks ride the Escalator up but take the Elevator down!!
The stunning Sentiment Indicator last week was the sharp, record-breaking rise of Commercial shorts in Gold, even though it has been climbing lately, above $1300. I would hope that eventually it would cause short covering/buying. On the contrary, CEO Insider Selling (by Sector), and other Insiders, have not shown the madness of the prior year. They dropped from 73 to 1 two weeks ago, down to 18:1. Finally, the AAII Bull/Bear survey moved quite a bit to the middle again (Bullish FOR the markets)
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 1/23/2015 | 1/16/2015 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 17672 | 17511 |
| NAZ | 4757 | 4634 | |
| SPX | 2051 | 2019 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 7.3/3.3 | 9.9/4.4 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.21 | 2.25 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 62 | 70 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 16.7 | 20.9 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 2083/1152 | 1448/1796 | |
| Weekly Net: | 931 | -348 | |
| Cumulative: | 165001 | 164070 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 516/165 | 479/339 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 174/243 | 207/294 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 16 | -2 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 257 | 227 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 49 | 48 |
| Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 17.4 | 16.3 |
| AAII -Bull :wed. | 37.1 | 46.1 | |
| Bear | 30.8 | 21.5 | |
| COT:SPX w/w | large/small (net)k | 4k/12k | 1k/19k |
| COT:gold comm.hedg | long-short.000 | (178k) | (138k) |
| CEOinsider | selling | .18:1 | .25:1 |
| off.&bd b/s.vs. | 10% holder b/s | .160:30 | 160:20 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 64 | 62 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekDelay | 0 |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | (1.0B) | (9.0B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | ||
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ | Int'l/Bond-$B | ||
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.49% | 0.49% | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 114.17 | 113.8 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
Subscribe in a reader
No comments:
Post a Comment