What a Revolting World! As a Contrarian it was interesting for
me to see that the takeaway from the media (Barron's) this weekend was that the
U.S.
stock market would soar due to a global flight to safety, and that gold would
tank. (DJIA down over 200 points on Monday, gold up $30). In Barron's Other
Voices column, Walter Weil, a retired hedgehog, noted the long term failure of
the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Indicator to predict the market a year
later! However, what he failed to observe was that immediately following each
signal, the market did decline short term - not a year later.
Although markets have been hitting new highs, not all
Sentiment Indicators are doing the same: the NASD to NY is quite high, but not
RECORD; the same with newsletter surveys, put/call, and both McClellan charts.
Records are occurring now in Margin debt; Barron's case for
over bought Gold is born out by Commercial Traders, now at a Record 117k short
contracts. For more commentary and this week's meetups, please see:
http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard
Here are the Sentiment numbers for last 2 weeks:
| Date> | 2/28/2014 | 2/21/2014 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 16321 | 16103 |
| NAZ | 4308nh | 4263 | |
| SPX | 1859nh | 1836 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny | 10.9/3.7 | 7.9/2.9 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.95 | 2.72 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 58 | 57 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 14 | 14.7 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1825/1192 | 1948/1247 | |
| Weekly Net: | 633 | 701 | |
| Cumulative: | 157149nh | 156516nh | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 457/63 | 353/52 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 446/50 | 368/47 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 42 | 44 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 924 | 727 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 53.5 | 46.5 |
| Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 17.2 | 17.2 |
| AAII -Bull :wed. | 39.7 | 42.2 | |
| Bear | 21.1 | 22.8 | |
| COT:SPX w/w | large/small (net)k | 6k/(29k) | 5k/(25k) |
| COT:gold comm.hedg | long-short.000 | (117k)* | (97k) |
| CEOinsider | selling | 111:1 | 130:1 |
| off.&bd b/s.vs. | 10% holder b/s | 200:50 | 200:25 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 72 | 70 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekDelay | 4.1B |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | 20B | (49B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 451Bnh | 445B |
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ | Int'l/Bond-$B | 987/377/248 | 1028/399/246 |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.32% | 0.32% | |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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