Last week's Sentiment numbers saw some toppy, overbought readings, creating a caution signal: my Volume ratio - NASD/NYSE is approaching a high (speculative) reading. Although only testing for a short time (2011), these levels were at previous tops in April 6, May 2, and July 22. My cum. Volume of Adv./Dec. is also toppy, going back to April. Commitment of Traders show Large Specs on the S&P going negative vs. positive for Small Specs. Most dramatic is the AAII and Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear ratios. Numbers appear below:
Date> | 1/13/2012 | 1/6/2012 | |
Indices: | DJIA | ..12422 | ..12359 |
NAZ | ..2710 | ..2674 | |
SPX | 1289 | 1277 | |
NASD/NYSE | WklyVolume (Bshs) | 3.9/8.7 | 3.2/6.9 |
nasd/nyse | Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.23 | 2.16 |
Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 59 | 63 |
Barron's | VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 20.9 | 20.6 |
Advance/Dec-NYSE | 2161/988 | 2213/947 | |
Weekly Net: | 1173 | 1266 | |
Cumulative: | 127706 | 126533 | |
Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 277/50 | 305/27 |
New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 153/89 | 118/81 |
McClellan | Oscillator | 26 | 29 |
McClellan Sum | .+750/-1000 | 618 | 395 |
Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 51.1 | 49.5 |
Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 29.8 | 30.5 |
AAII -Bull :wed. | 49.1 | 48.9 | |
Bear | 17.2 | 17.2 | |
COT:Change w/w | large/small (net)k | 21/(9) | 12/5. |
CEOinsider | selling | 20:1 | 30:1 |
BalticDryIndex | GlobalEcon | 1105 | 1426 |
3-box rev | Bullish%- | 73 | 68 |
US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | 1 wk lag | (7B) |
MMF flows | Change in $B | 11B | (1.9B) |
MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly OCT. | ||
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond | million$$ OCT. | ||
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.23% | 0.27% | |
Euro futures | 1 yr.offset-CommHedg | 4.96M | 5.13M |
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