Much has been said lately about the possible toppiness of the recent market runup, including some great wisdom this past weekend from Martin Pring and Associates at the TSAA monthly meeting - many longer term cycle charts and statistics. I strongly advise the reader to go to the Pring.com website for much of this information, under 2 2011 predictions - free and easily accessible.
Many Sentiment and Breadth extremes have been presenting themselves recently - so much so that I've put together a matrix of the most egregious, which will be shown and explained below.
I'm also giving several presentations in February on the decade-long, year-ending wrapup I exhibited last week, but also more fully explaining these extremes, in February at the GGU Library Learning program Feb.23, the AAII in the Orinda Library, the TSAA monthly meeting, and possibly other venues.
As striking as some of these numbers are, they often need explaining and put into context. Like most wise analysts, I hesitate to call market turns, rather displaying caution lights to hold off buying and look to hedging in apprehension of technical bearish signals. Of course, these talks will also include my recent variation of the DITM covered call strategy that is so timely and optimally defensive for this Lost Decade ahead.
Here are the two grids:
SENTIMENT INDICATOR COMPARISON
| Indicator | Date: | Close: | Date: | Close: | ||
| S&P500 | April 23,2010 | 1217 | Jan.14,2011 | 1293 | new recent high | |
| July 2,2010 | 1022 | ???? | ???? | since Sept.15,2008 | ||
| ???? | ||||||
| CBOE Eq. put/call | April 16,2010 | 42 | Jan.14,2011 | 47 | 7-yr.Low: 42 | |
| VIX Index | April 23,2010 | 16.6 | Jan.14,2011 | 15.5 | 7-yr.Low: 8.8 | |
| NYSE Hi/Lo | " | 950/18 | Jan.7,2011 | 554/20 | ||
| McClellan Summ. | " | 1241 | Jan.14,2011 | 625 | ||
| Inv.Intell.bull/bear | " | 53 | Jan.14,2011 | 57 | ||
| " | May 7,2010 | 57 | ||||
| CEO Insider Sales | April 23,2010 | .91:1 | Jan.7,2011 | .30:1 | ||
| Bullish percent | " | 87 | Jan.14,2011 | 87 | new recent high:88 | |
| Mutual Fund | ||||||
| Equity Inflows | April 23,2010 | Ended | Dec.23,2010 | Resumed | ||
| NYSE Margin Debt | " | $262B | Dec.23,2010 | $274B | new recent high:$381B(July/07) |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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