Monday, February 1, 2010

NERVOUS BREAKDOWN:

Many of the technicians and media talking heads are focused on the S&P500 Support level of 1085, which we broke through last week. More often than not, once a breakdown occurs through support, a retest to the "Ice" also happens - if it fails, the market recedes still more.

SPECIAL NOTE: Due to the advice of my IT I am changing my email from aol to: brentleonard59@gmail.com.
Please make this change - aol will forward for awhile yet.

Nothing spectacular from the Sentiment world. I did notice the last time the AAII Bears exceeded the Bulls was on Nov.6, the start of a nice rally. Volume picked up to new recent highs, but hardly a climactic capitulation. One other extreme was the McClellan Oscillator at -93, after not following my advice to turn the market up last week - this makes it more serious. Most other Indicators just regressed towards their means.

Here's the numbers:

MktSentiment Last Week
Prev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:10067
10172
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2147
2205
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1073
1091
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 68
68
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
24.6
27.3
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:-93
-79
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
546
930
1568
-1514
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
40.0
52.2
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
23.3
18.9
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
35.0
40.0
n/an/a
AAII Bear:
36.7
34.7
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.68
0.79
2.2
0.56
US Equity Flows1 week lag 1.3B

Money Market Flows
-21.9B
-46.0B


ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Dec.777B
Nov.738BB


Baltic Dry Index:3223
3170
11700
663
Bullish %:
73
77
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
8:1
14:1
108:1
2.4:1

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