CYCLE-LOGICAL:

The recently failed January Barometer - the month of January ending at a loss- is just one piece of a "nesting" of cycles that do not bode well for 2010: the zero year of the Decennial cycle is the worst of the 10, over 11 previous cycles; the Presidential, or 4-year Kitchin cycle has produced a large selloff since WWII; Martin Pring's 18-19 year cycle, which he calls the Lost Decade, as we saw similarly in Japan recently, also sees an alternating Bull to sideways/down cycle going back 200 years.

The good news is (for me) that my book on an alternative investment strategy to zero interest rates - Zero (In)Tolerance  should be ready for publication any day now. Any readers who are "FED" up with the punitive short term rates for retirees, prudent investors - pushing them into riskier investments (see declining Money Market Fund Flows below), might want to check this under-$20 book when released by Amazon's Createspace.com. More info can be had at www.brentleonard.com, also new.

Sentimentally, MMF flows were negative for the 5th week in a row, but for the first time, U.S. Equity flows turned negative, after the recent decline.

Despite the negative 40% of Inv.Intell. people surveyed calling for a correction - first time since 1983, both the I.I. and the AAII remain inverted intheir Bull/Bear ratios - a Bullish sign FOR the market. Also low is the Nova/Ursa fund ratio of longs to shorts.

Here are the numbers:

DJIA:	10099	10012	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2183	2141	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1075	1066	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	69	69	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	22.7	26.1	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	1	-69	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	154	299	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	34.1	38.9	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	38.9	40.0	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	36.8	29.2	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	41.9	43.1	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.40	0.51	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	-2.2B
Money Market Flows	-6.7B	-13.6B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Dec.777B	Nov.738BB
Baltic Dry Index:	2571	2685	11700	663
Bullish %:	64	64	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	11:1	28:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

CYCLE-LOGICAL: