INSIDE OUT:

The elephant in the room this week is corporate Insider trading! According to the figures posted by Thomson/Reuters, Rule 144 sales picked up in April from previous single digits ratios of sellers to buyers, just when the stock market rally was underway - when it took a pause in May, selling abated again, but July saw almost record numbers of sellers to buyers of their own stock culmination in 61 to 1 two weeks ago ( 37:1 last week). The record was in April at an outlier 108:1. 

The rubberband-like hyperextension of several indicators, much like a technical Momentum Oscillator, paradoxically represents a sign of strength, and signals can remain in stasis for awhile - but to my mind it is a yellow flag of caution, to abate, and/or hedge one's exposure. 

The Bullish Per Cent is at a near-record 80% (88 was the high); the McClellan Oscillator, also a breadth indicator, is coming off its 50+ high,now at 38, with the Summation well over 1,000.
Newsletter surveys Investors' Intelligence is almost at a 2:1 Bullish ratio, with the AAII close behind. And the CBOE Equity put/call ratio at 57 is the lowest it has been in 2009. 

Here are the numbers: 

MktSentiment. 8/07/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 9370………9171.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 2000………1978…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 1010……….987………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …57………….58……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 24.8……….25.9…….…….90…….….8.8

McClellan Osc………38………….50…………..108……..(-100) McClelSum…………..1356……..1115………..…....1568-....-1514

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…47.2………..42.2………….…63 ……...22.2l

Bear:………… 25.8……….31.1…………… 54.4.......16-

AAII-Bull/Bear ……50.0/35.2….47.7/31.4…….…..n/a

Nova/Ursa

MutualFunds………0.99………..0.90…………….2.2……..0.56

Baltic Dry

Index ……2772……….3350………….11700………663

Bullish%- …….…80………….73………….…88…….....2

*Insider corporate

sellers. 37:1……….61:1……………108:1…….2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows .. 1.5B……. 1.5B……

ETF InflowsL……… 0…………4.2B…….

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column. 

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With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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INSIDE OUT: