First of all, we are trying to breach the 1,000 (triple-zero) mark on the S&P 500 that we last saw in October '08; even though breadth of market is incredibly strong, due to the copious cash on the sidelines (some say $5 Trillion), and low competitive rates on fixed income, at some point at least a correction is due. With the McClellan Oscillator (adjusted) at 50 and the Summation over 1,000, coupled with the Bullish Per Cent at a recent high of 73, these limits are getting stretched.
The most extreme Indicator this week is the Insider Selling ratio (that many kids going to college?) at 61 to 1, although the decade high of 108 was at the "flag" pause in April. This does not bode well for future corporate profitability.
Finally, newsletter surveys are the most Bullish in recent months (Bearish FOR the market).
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 7/31/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 9171………9093.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1978………1965…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 987…………979………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call …58…………..66……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 25.9………..23.1…….…….90…….….8.8
McClellan Osc………50…………..72…………..108……..(-100) McClelSum…………..1115………855………..…....1568-....-1514
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…42.2……….36.7………….…63 ……...22.2l
Bear:………… 31.1……….35.6…………… 54.4.......16-
AAII-Bull/Bear ……47.7/31.4….37.6/42.4…….…..n/a
Nova/Ursa
MutualFunds………0.90………..0.94…………….2.2……..0.56
Baltic Dry
Index ……3350……….3345………….11700………663
Bullish%- …….…73………….68………….…88…….....2
*Insider corporate
sellers. 61:1………..48:1……………108:1…….2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows .. 1.2B……. 1.5B……
ETF InflowsL……… 4.2B……. (1.3B)…..
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