This year's Money Show was well attended, but lacked star power and interesting speakers. For the price (free) it is always worth checking out, if only as a refresher of trading systems, options, etc. IBD and TOS (Thinkorswim) had large representation.
Last week's caution signal didn't last very long (through Monday, which was indeed ugly); I attribute this failure to the plethora of media pundits all calling for the correction -therefore it won't happen, at least right away. One reader of this column thoughtfully opined that in January of '08 the CBOE put/call ratio gave a false signal, giving way to my premise from my matrix that although all bottoms coincided with an exceptionally high reading, not all high readings coincide with a bottom!
Volume on the NYSE is weak, usual for this time of year (wait until after Labor Day!), but it is 20% higher than last year. Last week's strong action pushed most indicators to the mean, except for the Bullish %, one of the more reliable ones.
My new, recent indicator the VIX and its futures, is showing higher volatility in the present than farther out - still too early in testing to be sure.
Breadth is very strong, and the AAII survey shows a complete reversal off the 51% Bulls of the previous one.
Here are the numbers:
| MktSentiment | 8/21/2009 | Prev. Week | 5 Year HI | 5 Year LOW |
| DJIA: | 9505 | 9321 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2020 | 1985 | 2810 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1026 | 1004 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 55 | 59 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 25.0 | 24.3 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | 25 | -15 | 108 | -100 |
| McClellan Sum: | 1302 | 1378 | 1568 | -1514 |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
Investors Intel. | ||||
Bull: | 48.3 | 49.4 | 63 | 22.2 |
Bear: | 23.1 | 21.3 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII | ||||
Bull: | 51.0 | 50.0 | n/a | |
Bear: | 33.0 | 35.2 | n/a | |
| Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds: | 0.84 | 0.96 | 2.2 | 0.56 |
| Baltic Dry Index: | 2468 | 2752 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 81 | 81 | 88 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 16:1 | 21:1 | 108:1 | 2.4:1 |
| Mutual Fund Inflows: | 0 | 0.7B | ||
| ETF Inflows: | -1B | -0.3B |
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
Subscribe in a reader
No comments:
Post a Comment