BOW-WOW!:

The above title is the best way I can describe last week's Best Of Wyckoff seminar (please see www.tsaasf.org for details); my figuring estimates that the mostly filled large auditorium at GGU received approximately $500 worth of trading information based on faculty instruction class fees for a ridiculously low $5, $25 for non-members, more for CE credits for CFPs. 

Much of the material presented was about trader behavior and risk, especially by GGU Professor and one-time partner of Martin Pring's management group, Bruce Fraser echoing the thought that everything we learn in life is diametrically opposed to what you need to do in successful trading - making the tough decisions (similar to what Congress and the government is currently facing). 

Although the overall feeling ( Wyckoff, pt.& figure, etc.) was Bullish, few of the Indicators are now reflecting that: the newsletter surveys - the Inv.Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio is an incredulous over 50 to under 20, although we see the AAII switching within 2 weeks from + 18 to - 14 inversion (see below) in direct contrast. 

Other indications of a very strong market needing a pause include the Bullish % creeping up to the record high at 83% of stocks on a BUY signal and the NY new highs at 247 to...2. All else is rather tepid, for now. 

Volume remains a mystery with the dark pools off the radar, 5 low price stocks commanding incredible volume (30% of the NYSE alone). 

Encyclopedist Thomas Bulkowski even sees the failure rate of the most common chart formations rising recently, albeit from a very low level over 20 years. 

Here are the statistics: 

MktSentiment	8/28/2009	Prev. Week	5 Year HI	5 Year LOW
DJIA:	9544	9505	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2028	2020	2810	1114
S&P 500:	1028	1026	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	58	55	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	24.3	25.0	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-3	25	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	1345	1302	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
Investors Intel.
Bull:	51.5	48.3	63	22.2
Bear:	19.8	23.1	54.4	16
AAII
Bull:	34.0	51.0	n/a
Bear:	48.5	33.0	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.95	0.84	2.2	0.56
Baltic Dry Index:	2421	2468	11700	663
Bullish %:	83	81	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	21:1	16:1	108:1	2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows:	0.4B	0
ETF Inflows:	3.8B	-1B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BOW-WOW!:

A DAY EARLY AND A DOLLAR SHORT:

This week's blog comes a day earlier than usual due to a family visitation; the dollar short is an alert that on CNBC, Bob Prechter (as usual) went against huge conventional wisdom in calling for a rise in the dollar, due to massive sentiment against it - Only 3% Bulls vs. 97% back in March. 

This year's Money Show was well attended, but lacked star power and interesting speakers. For the price (free) it is always worth checking out, if only as a refresher of trading systems, options, etc. IBD and TOS (Thinkorswim) had large representation. 

Last week's caution signal didn't last very long (through Monday, which was indeed ugly); I attribute this failure to the plethora of media pundits all calling for the correction -therefore it won't happen, at least right away. One reader of this column thoughtfully opined that in January of '08 the CBOE put/call ratio gave a false signal, giving way to my premise from my matrix that although all bottoms coincided with an exceptionally high reading, not all high readings coincide with a bottom! 

Volume on the NYSE is weak, usual for this time of year (wait until after Labor Day!), but it is 20% higher than last year. Last week's strong action pushed most indicators to the mean, except for the Bullish %, one of the more reliable ones. 

My new, recent indicator the VIX and its futures, is showing higher volatility in the present than farther out - still too early in testing to be sure. 

Breadth is very strong, and the AAII survey shows a complete reversal off the 51% Bulls of the previous one. 

Here are the numbers: 

MktSentiment	8/21/2009	Prev. Week	5 Year HI	5 Year LOW
DJIA:	9505	9321	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2020	1985	2810	1114
S&P 500:	1026	1004	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	55	59	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	25.0	24.3	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	25	-15	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	1302	1378	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
Investors Intel.
Bull:	48.3	49.4	63	22.2
Bear:	23.1	21.3	54.4	16
AAII
Bull:	51.0	50.0	n/a
Bear:	33.0	35.2	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.84	0.96	2.2	0.56
Baltic Dry Index:	2468	2752	11700	663
Bullish %:	81	81	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	16:1	21:1	108:1	2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows:	0	0.7B
ETF Inflows:	-1B	-0.3B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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A DAY EARLY AND A DOLLAR SHORT:

DOW(N) JONES AVERAGES:

There was not much change in the Sentiment Indicators, which followed through on last week's warning of too much Bullishness. Paradoxically everyone else called the top, at least short term.

Short Interest was reduced drastically the past month of short covering ( off 10% on the NYSE, 5% on the Nasdaq); much else has just backed off extremes, such as Insider Selling, the McClellan Oscillator, new highs. 

Moving higher in extremis were the Bullish per cent, at 81%, and the AAII Bulls, just over the 51% mark ( Investors' Intelligence was asleep at the switch with their numbers). 

Here are the numbers for last week: 

MktSentiment	8/14/2009	Prev. Week	5 Year HI	5 Year LOW
DJIA:	9321	9370	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	1985	2000	2810	1114
S&P 500:	1004	1010	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	59	57	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	24.3	24.8	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-15	38	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	1378	1356	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
Investors Intel.
Bull:	n/a	47.2	63	22.2
Bear:	n/a	25.8	54.4	16
AAII
Bull:	51.0	50.0	n/a
Bear:	33.0	35.2	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.96	0.99	2.2	0.56
Baltic Dry Index:	2752	2772	11700	663
Bullish %:	81	80	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	21:1	37:1	108:1	2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows:	.7B	1.5B
ETF Inflows:	-0.3B	0

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column. 

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

DOW(N) JONES AVERAGES:

INSIDE OUT:

The elephant in the room this week is corporate Insider trading! According to the figures posted by Thomson/Reuters, Rule 144 sales picked up in April from previous single digits ratios of sellers to buyers, just when the stock market rally was underway - when it took a pause in May, selling abated again, but July saw almost record numbers of sellers to buyers of their own stock culmination in 61 to 1 two weeks ago ( 37:1 last week). The record was in April at an outlier 108:1. 

The rubberband-like hyperextension of several indicators, much like a technical Momentum Oscillator, paradoxically represents a sign of strength, and signals can remain in stasis for awhile - but to my mind it is a yellow flag of caution, to abate, and/or hedge one's exposure. 

The Bullish Per Cent is at a near-record 80% (88 was the high); the McClellan Oscillator, also a breadth indicator, is coming off its 50+ high,now at 38, with the Summation well over 1,000.
Newsletter surveys Investors' Intelligence is almost at a 2:1 Bullish ratio, with the AAII close behind. And the CBOE Equity put/call ratio at 57 is the lowest it has been in 2009. 

Here are the numbers: 

MktSentiment. 8/07/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 9370………9171.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 2000………1978…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 1010……….987………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …57………….58……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 24.8……….25.9…….…….90…….….8.8

McClellan Osc………38………….50…………..108……..(-100) McClelSum…………..1356……..1115………..…....1568-....-1514

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…47.2………..42.2………….…63 ……...22.2l

Bear:………… 25.8……….31.1…………… 54.4.......16-

AAII-Bull/Bear ……50.0/35.2….47.7/31.4…….…..n/a

Nova/Ursa

MutualFunds………0.99………..0.90…………….2.2……..0.56

Baltic Dry

Index ……2772……….3350………….11700………663

Bullish%- …….…80………….73………….…88…….....2

*Insider corporate

sellers. 37:1……….61:1……………108:1…….2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows .. 1.5B……. 1.5B……

ETF InflowsL……… 0…………4.2B…….

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column. 

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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INSIDE OUT:

CAVEAT EMPTY:

Although this rara avis of a Summer Rally (a White Swan) continues to confound the experts, there are a couple blinking orange caution lights up ahead. Years ago Yale Hirsch, in his Stock Traders' Almanac, reported that the stock market gains on the first trading day of the month bested all the other days combined, although recently that has not exactly been the case. Point of fact, the 9th through 11th days have outpointed the last-through-fourth days.
First of all, we are trying to breach the 1,000 (triple-zero) mark on the S&P 500 that we last saw in October '08; even though breadth of market is incredibly strong, due to the copious cash on the sidelines (some say $5 Trillion), and low competitive rates on fixed income, at some point at least a correction is due. With the McClellan Oscillator (adjusted) at 50 and the Summation over 1,000, coupled with the Bullish Per Cent at a recent high of 73, these limits are getting stretched.
The most extreme Indicator this week is the Insider Selling ratio (that many kids going to college?) at 61 to 1, although the decade high of 108 was at the "flag" pause in April. This does not bode well for future corporate profitability.
Finally, newsletter surveys are the most Bullish in recent months (Bearish FOR the market).
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 7/31/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 9171………9093.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1978………1965…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 987…………979………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …58…………..66……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 25.9………..23.1…….…….90…….….8.8

McClellan Osc………50…………..72…………..108……..(-100) McClelSum…………..1115………855………..…....1568-....-1514

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…42.2……….36.7………….…63 ……...22.2l

Bear:………… 31.1……….35.6…………… 54.4.......16-

AAII-Bull/Bear ……47.7/31.4….37.6/42.4…….…..n/a

Nova/Ursa

MutualFunds………0.90………..0.94…………….2.2……..0.56

Baltic Dry

Index ……3350……….3345………….11700………663

Bullish%- …….…73………….68………….…88…….....2

*Insider corporate

sellers. 61:1………..48:1……………108:1…….2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows .. 1.2B……. 1.5B……

ETF InflowsL……… 4.2B……. (1.3B)…..

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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CAVEAT EMPTY: