THANK GOD IT'S (SEPT.) OVER:

Traditionally September is the worst month of the year for the stock market (Dec. and Jan. being the best), and this year was no exception. With the Gov't's fiscal year ending, some hedge funds investors seeing the lockup window close to exit their fund, end-of-quarter window dressing, and individual investors espying their 401ks and brokerage statements, we also have this crisis megabill for congress to pass.
After screwing up the Postal Service, Medicare, Social Security, and Welfare, we give them this problem to solve.
The most recent hammer was banning short sales, although short interest has been declining since its peak of 18.6B shares on July 25 of this year. Mutual fund redemptions are the greatest since Jan.'08. NY lows/highs were 15:1 last week, despite the short selling ban on financials, etc. Meanwhile, money market funds suffered a rare $1B decline after the record $144B inflow the previous week. This reflects a shift of the entire $143B from general MM to Treasury MMs.
Here are two Behavioral items to ponder: Paulson gives a high number (an Anchor) just as a salesman does, so that the settle number doesn't seems so bad; on the other hand, a contractor gives a bid for a project (especially in government work) which doubles or triples by the time the "unforeseen" unfolds.
Surprisingly, other than the VIX touching 40, most other Sentiment measures have regressed to the mild mean, unlike the markets.

For the first time in 5 years, I shall be taking a short vacation to southern Calif. and will be away from my data sources, so this blog will be interrupted for 2-3 weeks.

Here are last weeks numbers:

MktSentiment. 9/25/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 11143………11388………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 2183…………2273…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1213…………1255………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …72……………83……………..92-1/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 34.7…………32.0…….…….44… 9/02 bull..10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-24………….4……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-81)-5/04bull
McClelSum……….…-597……..-451……..…....1568-6/03.......-1187
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…37.5……….37.9……….…63 (12/04bear)......35-6/06bull
Bear:………… 40.9………43.7…..………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……34/45.7……27.2/54.4……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-…16.8……..18.5…….……18.5
Bullish%- ………43sell…….53buy………….…88 -2/04bear.....19bull
*Insider corporate sellers.12:1…..20:1………..97………….4
Mutual Fund Inflows..(9.3B)……(3.9B)…)……
ETF InflowsL……….23.2B……...8.3B……
Money Market Inflows: (1B)……144B…

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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THANK GOD IT'S (SEPT.) OVER: