Despite the Fear and Loathing brought on by the weekend, Sentiment numbers look surprisingly Bullish - comparing them to my infamous rally call on July 14: the SPX is 12 points away from that summer rally inception; the CBOE put/call ratio is actually 1 pt. higher now at 86 (huge); the VIX, at 25.6 is less than 2 pts. away; the Inv.Intell. survey is still inverted in favor of Bears (rare), and the AAII is almost as bad at 29 vs. 54. Birinyi bloggers, which I sometimes follow, showed a 65 to 21 bear/bull ratio.
Finally, the SDS, which is the short S&P500 ETF, saw weekly Volume not seen since that week in July, and Money Market Funds increased by a large $45B ( they always miss rallies!).
Here are the stats:
MktSentiment. 9/11/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 11421………11220………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 2261…………2255…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1251…………1242………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …86……………73……………..92-1/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 25.6………….23.0…….…….44… 9/02 bull..10.0-7/05 bear
McClellan Osc……….-6……………2……………91-5/04 bear...(-81)-5/04bull
McClelSum……….…-237………..-195…………..1568-6/03.......-1187
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…38.2………….37.8……….…63 (12/04bear)......35-6/06bull
Bear:………… 41.6…………40.0…..………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……29.3/54.9……37.0/43.2……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-…15.3…………17.3…….….
Bullish%- ………46……………45SELL………….…88 -2/04bear.....19bull
*Insider corporate sellers.15:1…….14:1………..97………….4
Mutual Fund Inflows..(6.5B)………..L(.4B
ETF InflowsL………..7B…………5.1B
Money Market Inflows: 44.4B…….19.3B
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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