Monday, September 8, 2008

THE OPEC (OPAQUE IN FRENCH) "PUT":

The oil group, in its upcoming meeting, threatens to cut supply and keep oil price at $100/bbl or above. In Barron's last week, Charles Maxwell calls for $300 oil in a few years. If so, the slide so beneficial to the economy would end, creating more universal hardship on consumers everywhere. The Baltic Dry Index, a good indicator of global economic growth is hitting new lows - it can be seen at http://www.investmenttools.com/, select BDI.
Also hitting new yearly lows, per Standard and Poors' technician Mark Arbeter's call in the current TSAA Review, is the Utility Index -whatever that may portend.
The DJIA's tessatura, or range, seems to ever widen, with a 350 down day last week and a fizzling 350 up day today based on the gov't bailout. Both the CBOE put/call ratio and VIX rose last week, (noticably puts on banks), though not yet to extremes.
In newsletter surveys, the AAII remained inverted, while the Inv.Intell. Bulls also fell under the Bear number - and the public shorting rose against Specialists - both sets Bullish.
On the downside, Bullish per cent went on a Sell signal - 54 to 45% of stocks on a buy signal - although false whipsaws do happen about once a year for the past 5 years.
Here are the actual numbers:

MktSentiment. 9/4/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 11220……….11543………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 2255…………2367…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1242………….1282………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …73…………….71……………..92-1/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 23.0…………..20.6…….…….44… 9/02 bull..10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc……….2……………40……………91-5/04 bear...(-81)-5/04bull
McClelSum……….…-195……….-275…………..1568-6/03.......-1187
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…37.8…………39.3……….…63 (12/04bear)......35-6/06bull
Bear:………… 40.0…………39.3…..………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……37.0/43.2……30.7/45.5……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-…17.3…………14.6…….….
Bullish%- ………45SELL………54………….…88 -2/04bear.....19bull
*Insider corporate sellers.14:1……22:1………..97………….4
Mutual Fund InflowsL(.4B)…….. (1.2B)
ETF InflowsL………..5.1B………..(2.5B)
Money Market Inflows: 19.3B…..(3.8B)

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