SLIP SLIDING AWAY:

Recently on CNBC, Robert Stovall, the Fundamental dinosaur and ultimate disser of Technical Analysis, expounded the technical study that, more often than not, the final week of September (and the U.S.Gov't's fiscal year) is a downer. Today's continuation of the Ben-efit rate cut is ending the day with yet another 100 point swing to the downside- not boding well for the week. In a study I've been doing, in 36 of the past 42 months the SPX has made a lower or even close between option expiration and the end of the month.
As one might expect, Bullish sentiment has rebounded with the rate cut and concomitant market rise: the CBOE put/call ratio dropped as the ISE call/put ratio rose materially; all the newsletter surveys jumped up to the Bullish camp, yet Public shorting rose vs. Specialists (those that are left). Corporate insiders are selling (Tech and Energy) while buying Finance at a 28:1 clip. Finally, investment money has stopped going into Money market funds and mutual funds, but sent 28 Billion into ETFs for the week.
Here are the stats:

Mktsentiment. 9/21/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13820……….13442………14001..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2671…………2602……….. 2707.............1114
S&P500…….. 1525…………1484…………1557……..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …60……………68………… 91…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 19…………….34.9………44 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 151……………118………..177………..118
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………39…………….31………91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum………-60……………..-246…………..1568-6/03.......(917)

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. 53.9…………48.3………..62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 27……………31.0………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……39.2/31.7……..40/35.3……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls….64…………… 58…………. 74..............24
UBS investor confidence..73………..87……………178……………53
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …7.77………..7.41….………8.25………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-….9.88………...7.85…..……18.25……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ……22.6/53.2………26.9/50
Bullish%- ………...62…………..54……….…88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers..28:1……..22:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Tech, Energy

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SLIP SLIDING AWAY: