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When the media gets too far on one side of an issue, such as September being historically the worst month of the year for securities, leave it to the markets to fool most of the people most of the time. With few exceptions (coming off a very strong oversold condition), Sentiment Indicators are still mostly positive, at least very short term - until mid-Sept. when we get the Surgin' General's Iraq report, the FOMC decision, brokers' Q2 earnings, and option expiration. We also get more recent housing, credit, and employment data. Since only 40 of the 10,000 hedge funds control 60% of stocks (per WSJ's Charles Gasparino), these big boys could continue to shake things up like a puppy with a rag doll.
This week the UBS Investor Confidence poll was added to the indicators primarily due to its sudden decline from 87 to 73 - it fell to 53 in August of '06 the start of this recent rally. The UBS survey is a Gallup poll of 800 investors with a minimum of $10,000 in equity assets.
Other Bullish extremes include the CBOE Equity put/call ratio again with a 7-handle at 71; the Bullish Per cent is still at a multi-year low of 49, on a Buy signal (it had hit 12 and 16 respectively in '01 and '02); finally, the AAII survey is still inverted, with more Bears than Bulls, and corporate insider buying remains positive.
Here are the results:

Mktsentiment. 8/31/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13357……….13378………13668..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2596…………2576……….. 2707.............1114
S&P500…….. 1474…………1479……….. 1557……..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …71…………..64………… 91…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 23.4…………20.7………44 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 135…………..133
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………63……………..69………..91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum………-569………………-747…………..1568-6/03.......(917)

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. 41.7………….40.6………..62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 37.4………….37.4………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ………40.3/46.3……41.3/46.1…..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 53…………….54…………. ………74..............24
UBS investor confidence..73………..87
IBD: Short Interest- …6.42…………….6.25………8.25………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…..10.3…………18.25nh……18.25……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ……27.2/36.3………..43.3/33.3
Bullish%- ………...49……………49……….…88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers.10.2:1……...6:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Tech, Healthcare

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