BYE, BYE:

Readers please be advised that for technical reasons, this column will not be updated for the next two weeks whilst I am on vacation (although I'll have my laptop, not all the research necessary to post). Giving a small talk last weekend at GGU on Sentiment allowed me to organize some matrices on the efficacy and order of importance of several Indicators, which I shall present when I return. Despite the recent parabolic runup, this is always a good time of year to be flat the market, or at least hedged.
Here are some small sampling factoids of interest:
Over the last 42 months, the number of times the SPX did not close at or below the expiration close by the end of that month: 6 (2 times in the past 2 years).
Over the last 30 months, number of times the SPX did not close at or higher than the Tuesday close before expiration (3 days before): 3
Times that the last day of a Quarter was negative over 13 quarters: 12
Times the DJIA was up the 4th Quarter over the past 27 years: 24.

This week's Indicators of Interest:
The McClellan Summation (cumulative Oscillator readings) went up throught the zero line this week - some view this as a positive. The Inv.Intell. and Market Vane surveys stretched to somewhat complacent. Both the Consumer Confidence and UBS Investor Optimism dropped to recent lows. Insider (officers) selling increased to 32:1, still Buying the Financials and Selling the Techs.
Public shorting shot up to 11 vs. what Specialists remain, and mutual funds suffered redemptions to money market funds.

Mktsentiment. 9/28/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13895……….13820………14001..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2701…………2671……….. 2707.............1114
S&P500…….. 1526…………1525…………1557……..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …66……………60…………… 91…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 18…………….19…………….44.. 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 134……………151……………177………..118
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………27……………39………91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum………62………………-60…………..1568-6/03.......(917)

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. 55.6…………53.9………..62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 25.6………….27………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……49.4/34.2……..39.2/31.7……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls….64……………64…………. 74..............24
UBS investor confidence..68……….73………178……………53
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.66……..7.77….………8.66………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-….11.09.88…..……18.25……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………22.6/53.2…….…22.6/53.2
Bullish%- ……….63……………...62……….…88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers..32:1………28:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Tech

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BYE, BYE: