CMJ-CRITICAL MARKET JUNCTURE:

JASON - July to November- is often a miserable time for the stock market (even with Congress on vacation -and just about everyone else), but this year seems to be even more ugly. It is decision time; whether to sanely observe one's benchmark stops, or avoid that frequent -Why do I always sell out at the bottom? Even with 3-day filters of broken support levels, damage is getting severe, especially in the OTC (non-global) stocks. Should one "cut-and-run", or stay the course?
It could take weeks before the loan default mess that affects financial stocks, hedge funds, private equity, even foreigners with Trillions of dollars in national wealth reserves, plays out. Luckily, the stock market looks ahead. The Russell 2000 is over 12% from its double-top recent highs; the Nasdaq Comp is at its 200-EMA; the S&P 500, with its global stocks, has barely broken horizontal support and the 200-EMA, and only by a couple days.
Hopeful Sentiment signs are emerging, although as with oscillators, they can remain oversold for awhile: the Bullish Per Cent is near its low of 46 with a 50 reading; the McClellan Oscillator, although off its lows of last week, is under water at -64, with its concomitant Summation Index way overcooked at -525 .
Surveyed Bears have risen up with the Inv.Intell. at 26 from a complacent record low of 18 just last week. Finally, the CBOE put/call ratio is at a high of 77, and public shorts and short interest are high.
Here are the facts:
Mktsentiment. 8/3/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13181........... 13265 …… 13668..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2511............ 2562 2707.............1114
S&P500…….. 1433.......... 1458............... 1557776
CBOE Eq. put/call ….77...........72 .87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 25.16……24.17. ..................44 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 67…………35.......................67....................28.

McClel Osc……-64………-103.................91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum……-525……….. -215 ..........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..47.2…………53.9.......62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 26.4………. 18.0 .........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ………45.9/40…44.2/36.8…....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 56………..64......... ………74..............24
IBD: Short Interest- ….7.23………7.82…….….8.25………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…..8.05……….6.85………13.15……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …………20.0/34.3.. 20.0/34.3
Bullish%- ……….…50…………54...........88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers..7.1……..7:1………
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Tech

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CMJ-CRITICAL MARKET JUNCTURE: