Monday, August 13, 2007

NINJA LOANS:

According to an article in Barron's, NINJA stands for NoIncome, NoJob, or Assets! That seems to be the primary cause of this market meltdown, although something else would have eventually provoked it. It is hard to believe that the word CREDIT is derived from the Latin Credo , or BELIEF. As usual, technicians disagree about the immediate future, with Tom McClellan calling for a multi-week bounce due to the 20-week cycle (which bottomed on July 30 exactly 20 weeks from the March 14 low); on CNBC today, veteran Phil Roth sees a 20-25% Bear market ahead and backs it up with high selling Volume (low buying), most stocks and the smaller caps below the 200MA - although the S&P 500 and DJIA bounced exactly up off it. However, horizontal Resistance looms ahead on these indices.
It is hard to imagine that, what with a 400-point down day, we finished the week positive. The newsletter surveys, usually put out on Wednesday, were barely changed, prior to Bloody Thursday. Extremes were seen in the VIX at 28+, McClellan Summation, now -667, and the Bullish per cent at horizontal suppport of 47 (however, giving a 3-box sell signal).
ETF inflows were huge, at 10B, although mutual funds showed a slight outflow.
Here are the stats:

Mktsentiment. 8/10/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13239…….........13181 ……... 13668..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2544……….......2511………. .... 2707.............1114
S&P500…….. 1453………........1433............... 1557……..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …65………….......77 .87-5/04........46-1/03
.
VIX ………. 28.3………..25.16..................44 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. n/a………….67.......................67....................28.

McClel Osc……-31………………-64.................91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum……-667…………….-525..........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..43.8………..47.2.......62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 31.5…………26.4.........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ………45.8/39…….45.9/40…....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 58………… 56......... ………74..............24
IBD: Short Interest- ….6.65………7.23…….….8.25………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…..9.07……….8.05………13.15……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ……35.3/41.2….20.0/34.3
Bullish%- ………47……….…50...........88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers..12:1….7:1……..
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Tech, Healthcare

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